Lokacin da fitilu suka fita, ba kawai kuna rasa wutar lantarki ba - kuna rasa ɗumi, aminci, haɗi, da kuma yanayin rayuwa ta yau da kullun. Ukraine ta rayu da wannan gaskiyar. Amma daga wannan duhun, wani abu mai ban mamaki yana fitowa: sabon tsarin gine-ginen makamashi wanda aka gina akan juriya, rarrabawa, da ƙudirin ba zai sake kasancewa cikin rauni ba.

Mun shafe shekaru muna nazarin kasuwannin ajiyar makamashi a fadin Turai - Spain, Italiya, Poland, da Baltic. Amma babu inda muka ga abin da ke faruwa a Ukraine a yanzu. Ba labarin kasuwa bane. Labari ne na wata al'umma ta sake gina asalin makamashinta a zahiri, a cikin yanayin da babu wata ƙasa da ta fuskanta.

Wannan labarin shine ƙoƙarinmu don fahimtar abin da kuke ciki - ba kamar yadda baƙon waje ke kallo ba, amma a matsayin abokan tarayya waɗanda suka yi imani da makomar makamashin Ukraine yana daya daga cikin muhimman labarun zamaninmu. Ba mu yi kamar mun san abin da yake so mu rayu ta abin da kuke rayuwa ta ciki ba. Amma muna fahimtar batura, grid ɗin wuta, da tattalin arziƙin 'yancin kai na makamashi. Kuma muna so mu raba abin da muke gani - saboda mun yi imani da abin da kuke ginawa.

Mizanin Abinda Aka Rasa

Don fahimtar inda kasuwar ajiyar makamashi ta Ukraine ke tafiya, dole ne mu fara yin gaskiya game da abin da aka rasa. Kafin 2022, Ukraine tana sarrafa ɗayan manyan tsarin wutar lantarki na Turai - kusan 40 GW na iya aiki, wanda aka kafa ta hanyar nukiliya, thermal, da samar da wutar lantarki. Tsari ne da aka ƙera don ƙasar zaman lafiya mai mutane miliyan 40. Sai hare-haren suka zo. Tsari, niyya, da ɓarna.

• Tsarin Makamashi na Ukraine: Kafin & Bayan
• An shigar da ƙarfin kafin yaƙi40 GW
• Ƙarfin da ake samu (ƙimancin tsakiyar 2024)~ 10 GW
• Ƙirƙirar thermal ya lalace ko ya lalace> 80%
• Rauni iya aiki na hunturu~ 6 GW
• Kashewar yau da kullun a Kyiv (kololuwar 2024)> 10 hours

Kusan kashi biyu bisa uku na ƙarfin da ake iya aikawa da shi na Ukraine ya lalace, ya lalace, ko yana cikin yankin da aka mamaye. Shugaba Zelensky ya fito fili ya bayyana cewa hare-hare da dama sun lalata kusan rabin karfin makamashin kasar. A cikin manyan biranen, gine-gine sun jimre da yanke wutar lantarki na yau da kullun fiye da sa'o'i 10 - a cikin hunturu, tare da yanayin zafi yana raguwa zuwa -20 ° C.

Amma ga abin da ya fi kama mu: Ukraine ba ta mika wuya ga duhu ba. Maimakon haka, ta yanke shawara mai mahimmanci wanda kasashe kalilan ne za su sami karfin gwiwa don yankewa a cikin irin wannan yanayi: don sake fasalin tsarin makamashin ta ta yadda za a iya raba madafun iko, tsararru da kuma ajiyar makamashi.

Ba mu ƙara yin muhawara ko Ukraine tana buƙatar tsara tsararraki ba. Muna tattauna yadda za a haɓaka shi da sauri. Ƙaddamarwa yana ƙayyade ba kawai ta hanyar ƙarfin wutar lantarki da aka samar ba, amma ta hanyar gine-ginen tsarin makamashi.

- Valentyna Moskalenko, Mataimakin Ministan Makamashi na Ukraine

The Vision: Energy Cells

Amsar da Ukraine ta bayar ga raunin raunin tsakiya shine manufar "Makamashi Kwayoyin" - gungu masu cin gashin kansu ko masu cin gashin kansu inda mahimman abubuwan more rayuwa zasu iya ci gaba da aiki koda lokacin da grid na tsakiya ya lalace. Wannan ba tunanin fasaha ba ne kawai; falsafa ce ta juriyar kasa.

Tsarin gine-gine yana da matakai uku:

• Tushen nukiliya: Tsire-tsire na nukiliya suna ba da kwanciyar hankali na grid wanda ba za a iya maye gurbinsa ba. Ukraine za ta ci gaba da bunkasa fannin nukiliyarta a matsayin kashin baya.
• Sassauci & Layer ajiya: Ƙirƙirar sassauƙa, tsarin ajiyar makamashin baturi (BESS), da sabbin kayan aikin da aka tura a yankunan da mafi girman ƙarancin wutar lantarki - arewa, gabas, da kudancin Ukraine, da yankin Kyiv.
• 'Yancin yankin: Haɗin kai, ƙananan rukunin iskar gas, ƙarancin zafi da samar da ruwa - waɗanda hukumomin gida ke gudanarwa, ƙarfafa al'ummomin su zama masu dogaro da kansu.

Abin da wannan ke nufi don ajiyar makamashi yana da zurfi: batura ba su zama "zaɓi kore" ko "kyakkyawan-da-samuwa ba." An rarraba su kamar muhimman ababen more rayuwa na tsaron kasa. Suna zaune a mahadar manufofin makamashi, dabarun tsaro, da juriyar al'umma.

Shugaban riko na Ukrenergo Oleksii Brekht ya bayyana hakan aƙalla 1.5 GW na ƙarfin ajiya za a buƙaci a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa kawai don kula da amintaccen aikin grid. Wannan siginar buƙatu ce ta tsawon shekaru goma - kuma farkon ne.

Ginin Ma'ajin Makamashi Mafi Sauri a Turai

Anan ne labarin ke motsawa daga hangen nesa zuwa gaskiya - kuma lambobin suna da ban mamaki. A cikin shekara guda, ƙarfin ajiyar makamashi na Ukraine ya karu da fiye da haka sau 300, fiye da 600MW. Dangane da SolarPower Turai's "Kasuwar Batirin Turai Outlook 2026-2030," Ukraine ta kara kusan 3 GW na ƙarfin baturi a cikin 2025 kadai, shiga manyan shugabannin Turai biyar a cikin haɓaka ƙarfin ajiya - tare da Jamus, Burtaniya, da Italiya.

• Ma'ajiyar Makamashi ta Ukraine: Mahimman Lambobi
• Wurin ajiya da aka shigar (ƙarshen 2025)> 600MW (300x girma YoY)
• An ƙara sabon ƙarfin baturi a cikin 2025~ 3 GW
• Matsayin TuraiTop 5 a girma
• Ma'ajiyar da aka yi hasashe nan da 2030 (mai ra'ayin mazan jiya)1.5 GW
• Ma'ajiyar Hasashen nan da 2030 (Kimanin kasuwa)2,750 MWh
• Kasuwar ajiyar baturi da aka yi hasashen nan da 2026~ $2.1 biliyan (+180%)

Abin da ya sa wannan abin mamaki: Yawancin ƙasashen Turai sun ɗauki shekaru 5-10 don isa GWh na farko na ajiya. Ukraine ta yi shi a cikin ƙasa da shekaru biyu - daga tushen kusan-sifili, ƙarƙashin yaƙin aiki, tare da sarƙoƙi da ke shimfiɗa ta Poland da Romania. Wannan ba ci gaban kasuwa bane na yau da kullun. Wannan al'umma ce da ke gina ababen more rayuwa a cikin saurin lokacin yaƙi.

The Landmark Projects

Satumba 2025

DTEK + Haske: 200MW / 400MWh - Babban rukunin ajiyar makamashi mafi girma a Gabashin Turai, wanda ya mamaye wurare shida a cikin yankunan Kyiv da Dnipropetrovsk. €125 miliyan zuba jari. 698 Fluence Gridstack raka'a. Isasshen wutar lantarki gidaje 600,000 na awanni biyu. An ba da izini duk da haɗarin yaƙi - alama mai ƙarfi cewa kasuwanci yana shirye don saka hannun jari a makomar Ukraine.

2024 - Ci gaba

Ukrhydroenergo: 197 MW BESS + 35.9 MW Solar - Wani aikin samar da wutar lantarki mallakar gwamnati wanda ya hada samar da wutar lantarki tare da ajiyar batir da hasken rana, wanda Bankin Duniya ($177M) da Asusun Fasaha mai Tsafta ($104M). A karon farko da wani kamfani mallakar gwamnatin Ukraine ya aiwatar da wani babban aikin BESS wanda ya dogara da kudaden jama'a na kasa da kasa.

Agusta 2024

Auction na Ayyukan Agaji na Farko na Ukrenergo - Kamfanoni 39 sun fafata don samun 99 MW na kwangilolin ajiyar mitar. 12 masu nasara. Shekaru biyar, kwangilolin da ke da alaƙa da Yuro. Wannan taron guda ɗaya ya ƙaddamar da kasuwar ajiyar kasuwanci a Ukraine.

Mayu 2025

Auction na Ukrenergo na biyu: 249 MW na tanadi mai sauri da aka sayo, tare da fasahar adana makamashi suna taka rawar gani.

Babban ma'aunin makamashi na Wenergy ya sauka a Ukraine

 

Juyin Juyin Halitta

Abin da ya fi burge mu game da Ukraine ba kawai saurin turawa ba ne - shi ne haɓakar tsarin manufofin da ake ginawa lokaci guda. A cikin ƙasa da shekaru uku, Ukraine ta gina ɗaya daga cikin mafi girman tsarin ƙarfafa ajiyar makamashi a duniya. Bari mu bi ta ginshiƙai masu mahimmanci:

Kofar Zero-Tariff

Tun daga Yuli 2024, Ukraine ta yi watsi da ita duk VAT da harajin shigo da kaya akan kayan ajiyar makamashi, da hasken rana, da tsarin samar da wutar lantarki. An tsawaita wannan manufar ta hanyar 2028. Ga kowane kasuwanci yana la'akari da saka hannun jari, wannan yana kawar da babban shingen tsadar jari.

Samfurin "Mabukaci Mai Aiki".

Wataƙila manufofin da suka fi canza canji: kasuwanci da gidaje waɗanda ke shigar da tsarawa da ƙarfin ajiya ba za su iya biyan bukatun kansu kawai ba amma sayar da ragi na wutar lantarki zuwa grid. Wannan yana juya tsarin ajiya daga cibiyar farashi mai tsafta zuwa kadara mai samar da kudaden shiga.

Doka No. 4777-IX: Sabunta Makamashi Mai Sabuntawa

Shugaban kasar ya sanya hannu a cikin Maris 2025, wannan babbar doka ta sake fasalin dokoki 15 masu alaƙa da makamashi. Abubuwan da suka fi dacewa:

• Babban Ciyarwa (FiP) ya maye gurbin Kwangiloli don Bambance-bambance (CfD) - mafi fahimi, samfurin kudaden shiga da ya dace da kasuwa
• Green gwanjon ya tsawaita zuwa 2034 - ba masu zuba jari damar tsara shirin shekaru 10
• Solar+Ajiya azaman nau'in gwanjo daban tare da mafi ƙarancin adadin kashi 10% - ninki biyu na rabon rana ko iska
• BESS karkashin 5MW keɓe daga lasisi - rage girman shingen ajiyar C&I
• Haƙƙin haɗin gwiwa - Masu aiki na BESS na iya shigar da tsarawa tare da ajiya ba tare da wani lasisi daban ba
• Haɗin grid mai sassauƙa - hanya zuwa grid shiga don ɗaruruwan ayyuka makale a cikin layi

Shirye-shiryen Ba da Kuɗi

 

Ilimin Tattalin Arziki: Me yasa Ajiye ke da Ma'ana Yanzu
Ga duk wani shugaban 'yan kasuwa na Ukrainian da ke kimanta ko zai saka hannun jari a ajiyar makamashi, da wuya tattalin arzikin ya kasance mafi tursasawa. Bari mu karya tarin kudaden shiga:

1. Peak-Valley Arbitrage
Tsarin farashin wutar lantarki na masana'antu na Ukraine yana haifar da gagarumin yaduwar kwari-kwari:

Matsakaicin farashin kololuwa zuwa kwari kusan 1.6:1. Yin caji a cikin sa'o'i marasa ƙarfi da fitarwa a lokacin kololuwa yana haifar da tanadi na gaggawa, wanda za'a iya aunawa - musamman ga masana'antu masu ƙarfin kuzari.

2. Harajin Ayyukan Agaji

Wannan shi ne inda kasuwar Ukraine ta kasance na musamman. Tallan tallace-tallace na dogon lokaci na Ukrenergo yana ba da kwangiloli na shekaru biyar na Yuro don ƙa'ida - yana ba da garanti, kudaden shiga na banki:

Sakamakon Auction na Ukrenergo Ancillary Services

• Matsakaicin Matsakaici (FCR) - matsakaicin nauyi €14-15 / MWh
• Sama aFRR - matsakaicin nauyi €18/MWh
• Symmetric aFRR - matsakaicin nauyi €24-27 / MWh
• Tsawon kwangila 5 shekaru, EUR-denorated
• Kwatankwacin farashin kasuwar Turai €1.5–3 / MW·h (5-10x ƙasa)

Mahimmin fahimta: Farashin sabis na taimakon Ukraine ya ninka sau 5-10 fiye da manyan kasuwannin Turai. Wannan yana nuna matsananciyar buƙata don daidaita ƙarfin grid - kuma yana nufin cewa ga masu aiki da ajiya, kudaden shiga na taimakon sabis kaɗai na iya ɗaukar wani yanki mai mahimmanci na farashin saka hannun jari, kafin yin la'akari da ƙima da ƙimar kariya.

3. Rashin Kariya & Ci gaba da Kasuwanci

Bayan kudaden shiga kai tsaye, akwai darajar abin da ajiya ke hanawa: dakatarwar samarwa, lalata kayan aiki, asarar bayanai, da kuma farashin ɗan adam na aiki ba tare da wutar lantarki ba. Don masana'anta, asibiti, ko cibiyar sadarwa, farashin tsawaita lokaci ɗaya na iya wuce kuɗin tsarin ajiya na shekara-shekara. A cikin yanayin halin yanzu na Ukraine, wannan "ƙirar juriya" ba ta dace ba - ana samun ta kowace rana.

4. “Mabukaci Mai Aiki” Ruwan Kudaden Shiga

Tare da sabon tsarin doka, 'yan kasuwa za su iya siyar da rarar rarar kayayyaki zuwa ga grid, ƙirƙirar layin shiga na uku. Tsarin C&I da aka tsara da kyau don haka zai iya samar da kudin shiga daga magudanan ruwa guda uku: tanadi na sasantawa, sabis na tallafi, da rarar siyar da wutar lantarki.

Al'ummar Duniya Suna Zuba Jari

Sake gina makamashin Ukraine ba ya faruwa a ware. Tsarin gine-ginen kuɗi na duniya da ke tallafawa shi ba a taɓa yin irinsa ba:

• EBRD - babban mai saka hannun jari na hukumomi a Ukraine, yana tura Yuro biliyan 2.4 a cikin 2024 kadai, Yuro biliyan 6.2 tun daga 2022. An ƙaddamar da Yuro miliyan 700 na Tsaron Tsaron Makamashi (ESSF) musamman don tsararru, ajiyar makamashi, da ayyuka masu inganci.
• Bankin Duniya / IBRD - Dala miliyan 177 a cikin ba da kuɗaɗe don aikin ajiya na MW 197 na Ukrhydroenergo.
• MIGA - sama da dala biliyan 4 a cikin garantin haɗarin siyasa, gami da yaƙi da rikice-rikicen jama'a.
• Cibiyar Hadarin Yakin EBRD - Yuro miliyan 300+ a cikin asarar farko don yin lamuni na kasuwanci a lokacin yaƙi.
• Asusun Sake Gina Tutar EU - niyya kusan € 500M farkon rufewa a cikin 2026, tattara babban jari don abubuwan samar da makamashi.

Abin da wannan ke nufi ga kasuwancin Ukrainian: babban jari yana samuwa. Akwai tashoshi na kuɗi. Hanyoyin inshorar haɗari sun wanzu. Tsarin manufofin yana tallafawa zuba jari. Babban abin da ya ɓace sau da yawa shine kawai sanin waɗanne mafita ne suka dace, yadda za a tsara aikin, da waɗanda za a yi tarayya da su.

Abin da Ukraine ke Bukatar Yanzu

Bayan nazarin wannan kasuwa sosai, mun ga gibi da yawa waɗanda ba a cika su ba tukuna - kuma inda muka yi imani cewa babbar dama ta ta'allaka ne ga kasuwancin Ukrainian:

• Sashin 1-10MW C&I ba a yi masa hidima ba. Yawancin manyan ayyuka suna mayar da hankali kan sikelin-grid (10MW+) ko mazaunin (a ƙarƙashin 10 kWh). Tsakiyar - masana'antu, asibitoci, cibiyoyin kasuwanci, wuraren aikin gona - shine inda buƙatu na aiki ya fi girma kuma inda daidaitaccen mafita zai iya yin tasiri mafi sauri.
• Ayyukan sanyi-yanayin yanayi ba za a iya sasantawa ba. Lokacin sanyi na Ukraine yana buƙatar tsarin ajiyar makamashi wanda ke aiki da dogaro a -20 ° C. Ba duk samfuran da ke kasuwannin duniya ba ne ke iya cika wannan buƙatu ba.
• Grid-tsibirin sauyawa da ikon farawa baki fasali ne masu mahimmanci, ba ƙari na zaɓi ba. A cikin Yukren, ikon cire haɗin grid mai gazawa da aiki da kansa - sannan taimakawa sake kunna grid lokacin da ya murmure - larura ce ta yau da kullun, ba yanayin ka'ida ba.
• Gudun aika aiki yana da mahimmanci gwargwadon farashi. Tsarin da ke ɗaukar watanni 12 don bayarwa bai fi wanda zai iya aiki a cikin makonni 6 ba. Yanayin makamashi na Ukraine yana canzawa a mako.
• Haɗin kai tare da sabis na taimako - mafi kyawun tsarin ajiya na C & I su ne waɗanda za su iya shiga cikin ƙayyadaddun ƙa'idodin ƙa'idar mita ta Ukrenergo, ƙara yawan kudaden shiga wanda ke inganta ROI sosai.

Wenergy's C&I aikin ajiyar makamashi da aka tura a Ukraine

Ukraine ba kawai sake gina grid wutar lantarki ba. Yana samar da wani sabon salo na yadda al'umma ke samun karfin kuzari a cikin yanayi mafi wahala da ake iya hasashe. Duniya tana kallo, kuma duniya tana koyi da ku.

A Wenergy, mun shafe shekaru muna fahimtar fasahar ajiyar baturi, haɗin gwiwar grid, da tattalin arziƙin 'yancin kai na makamashi. Mun san tsarin LFP, aikin sanyi-yanayin aiki, yanayin yanayin tsibiri, da ikon farawa baki. Amma mafi mahimmanci, mun yi imanin an gina haɗin gwiwa na gaske akan fahimta - ba kawai ma'amaloli ba.

Ko kai EPC ne, mai haɓaka aikin, kamfanin makamashi, mai amfani da masana'antu, ko kawai bincika aikin ajiyar makamashi na farko - ba tare da la'akari da girman aikin ko mataki ba, za mu yi farin cikin magana. Zai iya zama ƙaramin tsarin C&I ko aikin sikelin mai amfani. Wataƙila kuna da wani aiki, ko kuma kuna iya bincika abin da zai yiwu. Babu filin tallace-tallace mai wuya. Tattaunawa kawai tsakanin mutanen da suka damu da abu guda:

Gina Ukraine wanda ba zai sake yin duhu ba.