Ke pio nā kukui, ʻaʻole ʻoe e nalowale i ka uila - nalowale ʻoe i ka mehana, palekana, pili, a me ke kani o ke ola maʻamau. Ua ola ʻo Ukraine i kēia ʻoiaʻiʻo. Akā mai kēlā pōʻeleʻele, e puka mai ana kekahi mea kupaianaha: kahi hoʻolālā ikehu hou i kūkulu ʻia ma luna o ka resilience, decentralization, a me ka manaʻo paʻa ʻaʻole e lilo hou.

Ua hoʻohana mākou i nā makahiki e aʻo ana i nā mākeke mālama ikehu ma ʻEulopa - Sepania, Italia, Polani, ka Baltics. Akā ʻaʻole mākou i ʻike i nā mea e hana nei ma Ukraine i kēia manawa. ʻAʻole ia he moʻolelo makeke. He moʻolelo ia o kahi lāhui e kūkulu hou ana i kona ʻike ikehu i ka manawa maoli, ma lalo o nā kūlana i ʻike ʻole ʻia e kekahi ʻāina ʻē aʻe.

ʻO kēia ʻatikala kā mākou hoʻāʻo e hoʻomaopopo i kāu mea e hele nei - ʻaʻole e like me ka poʻe o waho e nānā nei, akā ma ke ʻano he mau hoa e manaʻoʻiʻo nei ʻo ka ikehu o Ukraine kekahi o nā moʻolelo koʻikoʻi o ko mākou manawa. ʻAʻole mākou e hoʻohālike e ʻike i ke ʻano o ke ola ʻana i kāu mea e noho nei. Akā, maopopo iā mākou nā pākaukau, nā mana mana, a me ka ʻoihana waiwai o ke kūʻokoʻa ikehu. A makemake mākou e kaʻana like i nā mea a mākou e ʻike nei - no ka mea ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei mākou i kāu mea e kūkulu nei.

ʻO ka unahi o ka mea i nalowale

No ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana i kahi e hele ai ka mākeke mālama ikehu o Ukraine, pono mākou e ʻoiaʻiʻo mua i ka mea i nalowale. Ma mua o 2022, ua hoʻohana ʻo Ukraine i kekahi o nā ʻōnaehana mana nui loa o ʻEulopa - kokoke 40 GW o ka mana i kau ʻia, i hoʻopaʻa ʻia e ka hana nuklea, wela, a me ka hydroelectric. He ʻōnaehana i hoʻolālā ʻia no kahi ʻāina maluhia o 40 miliona mau kānaka. A laila hele mai nā hoʻouka. Pūnaehana, hoʻopaʻa ʻia, a me ka pōʻino.

• Pūnaehana Energy o Ukraine: Ma mua a ma hope
• Ma mua o ke kaua i kau ʻia ka mana~ 40 GW
• Hiki ke loaʻa (manaʻo i waena o 2024)~ 10 GW
• Ua pōʻino a luku ʻia paha ka hana wela> 80%
• Kuhi ʻia ka hemahema hiki ke hoʻoilo~ 6 GW
• Paʻa i kēlā me kēia lā ma Kiev (2024 peak)> 10 hola

Ma kahi kokoke i ʻelua hapakolu o ka mana mana hoʻouna o Ukraine ua hōʻino ʻia, luku ʻia, a i ʻole aia ma ka ʻāina i noho ʻia. Ua haʻi aku ʻo Pelekikena Zelensky i ka nui o nā nalu o ka hoʻouka ʻana i luku i ka hapalua o ka mana ikehu o ka ʻāina. Ma nā kūlanakauhale nui, ua hoʻomanawanui nā hale i nā ʻoki mana i kēlā me kēia lā ma mua o 10 mau hola - i ka hoʻoilo, me ka hāʻule ʻana o nā mahana i -20 ° C.

Akā, eia ka mea e hōʻeha loa iā mākou: ʻAʻole hāʻawi ʻo Ukraine i ka pouli. Akā, ua hoʻoholo i ka manaʻo hoʻoholo e loaʻa i nā ʻāina liʻiliʻi ka wiwo ʻole e hana ma lalo o ia mau kūlana: e hoʻolālā hou i kāna ʻōnaehana ikehu e pili ana i ka decentralization, distributed generation, a me ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu.

ʻAʻole mākou e hoʻopaʻapaʻa hou inā makemake ʻo Ukraine i nā hanauna i hoʻohele ʻia. Ke kūkākūkā nei mākou pehea e hoʻonui ai i ka wikiwiki. Hoʻoholo ʻia ka resilience ʻaʻole wale e ka nui o ka uila i hana ʻia, akā ma ka hoʻolālā ʻana o ka ʻōnaehana ikehu.

- Valentyna Moskalenko, Hope Kuhina o Energy o Ukraine

ʻO ka ʻike: Nā Pūnaewele Energy

ʻO ka pane o Ukraine i ka nawaliwali centralized ka manaʻo o “Nā Pūnaehana Pūnaehana” - nā puʻupuʻu kūʻokoʻa a i ʻole semi-autonomous kahi e hiki ai ke hoʻomau ka hana koʻikoʻi i ka hana ʻana ʻoiai i ka wā i pōʻino ai ke kikowaena kikowaena. ʻAʻole kēia he manaʻo loea wale nō; he kuʻuna no ke kūpaʻa ʻāina.

He ʻekolu papa o ka hale hoʻolālā:

• kahua nuklea: Hāʻawi nā mea kanu nuklea i ka paʻa paʻa i hiki ʻole ke hoʻololi. E hoʻomau ka hoʻomohala ʻana o Ukraine i kāna ʻāpana nuklea ma ke ʻano he iwi kuamoʻo.
• Hiki ke hoʻololi a me ka papa mālama: ʻO ka hanauna maʻalahi, nā ʻōnaehana mālama uila (BESS), a me nā mea hana hou i kau ʻia ma nā wahi me ka hapa nui o ka uila - ʻākau, hikina, a me ka hema o Ukraine, me ka ʻāina ʻo Kyiv.
• Kūʻokoʻa kūloko: ʻO ka Cogeneration, nā ʻāpana kinoea liʻiliʻi, ka wela a me ka lako wai - mālama ʻia e nā luna kūloko, e hāʻawi ana i nā kaiāulu e lawa pono iā lākou iho.

He hohonu ka manaʻo o kēia no ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu: ʻaʻole he "koho ʻōmaʻomaʻo" a i ʻole he "maikaʻi i loaʻa." Hoʻokaʻawale ʻia lākou e like me ʻoihana palekana aupuni koʻikoʻi. Noho lākou ma ke kikowaena o ke kulekele ikehu, ka hoʻolālā pale, a me ke kūpaʻa kaiāulu.

Ua haʻi aku ka Luna Nui o Ukrenergo ʻo Oleksii Brekht ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o 1.5 GW o ka mana mālama e koi ʻia i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana e mālama wale i ka hana grid hilinaʻi. He hōʻailona koi ʻumi makahiki ia - a ʻo ka hoʻomaka wale nō ia.

ʻO ka wikiwiki loa o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu i kūkulu ʻia ma ʻEulopa

Eia kahi e neʻe ai ka moʻolelo mai ka hihiʻo a hiki i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo - a ke hoʻohauʻoli nei nā helu. I ka makahiki hoʻokahi, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka nui o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu o Ukraine ma mua o 300 manawa, ʻoi aku ma mua o 600 MW. Wahi a ka SolarPower Europe's "European Battery Market Outlook 2026-2030," ua hoʻohui ʻo Ukraine ma kahi o 3 GWh o ka mana pākaukau ma 2025 Hoʻokahi wale nō, e hui pū me nā alakaʻi ʻelima ʻEulopa i ka ulu ʻana o ka hiki ke mālama - me Kelemania, UK, a me Italia.

• ʻO Ukraine Energy Storage: Nā helu nui
• Hiki ke hoʻopaʻa ʻia (hopena o 2025)> 600 MW (300x ulu makahiki)
• Hoʻohui ʻia ka mana pākaukau hou ma 2025~ 3 GWh
• kūlana EuropaTop 5 i ka ulu
• Kuhi ʻia e mālama ʻia e 2030 (conservative)1.5 GW
• Kuhi ʻia e mālama ʻia e 2030 (manaʻo mākeke)2,750 MWh
• Kuhi ʻia ka mākeke mālama pākaukau e 2026~ $2.1 biliona (+180%)

He aha kēia mea kupaianaha: ʻO ka hapa nui o nā ʻāina ʻEulopa i lawe i 5-10 mau makahiki a hiki i kā lākou GWh mua o ka mālama. Ua hana ʻo Ukraine ma lalo o ʻelua mau makahiki - mai kahi kokoke-zero baseline, ma lalo o ke kaua ikaika, me nā kaulahao lako e holo ana ma Polani a me Romania. ʻAʻole kēia ka ulu mākeke maʻamau. He lāhui kēia e kūkulu nei i kāna ʻoihana ola i ka wikiwiki o ke kaua.

Nā Papahana Landmark

Kepakemapa 2025

DTEK + Fluence: 200 MW / 400 MWh — ʻO ka paʻakikī nui o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ma ʻEulopa Hikina, e hoʻopaʻa ana i ʻeono mau wahi ma waena o nā wahi o Kyiv a me Dnipropetrovsk. €125 miliona kālā. 698 Fluence Gridstack pūʻulu. Ua lawa ka mana i nā hale 600,000 no ʻelua hola. Hoʻonohonoho ʻia ʻoiai nā pilikia o ke kaua - kahi hōʻailona ikaika e mākaukau ka ʻoihana e hoʻopukapuka i ka wā e hiki mai ana o Ukraine.

2024 – Ke mau nei

Ukrhydroenergo: 197 MW BESS + 35.9 MW Solar — He papahana hybrid nona ka mokuʻāina e hoʻohui ana i ka hoʻokumu hydroelectric me ka mālama ʻana i ka pākaukau a me ka lā, i kālā ʻia e ka World Bank ($177M) a me Clean Technology Fund ($104M). ʻO ka manawa mua i hoʻokō ai kahi hui mokuʻāina ʻo Ukrainian i kahi papahana BESS nui e pili ana i ke kālā kālā lehulehu.

ʻAukake 2024

ʻO ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā lawelawe kōkua mua o Ukrenergo - Ua hoʻokūkū nā hui 39 no 99 MW o nā ʻaelike mālama mālama pinepine. 12 lanakila. ʻElima makahiki, ʻaelike euro-denominated. Ua hoʻomaka kēia hanana hoʻokahi i ka mākeke mālama kūʻai ma Ukraine.

Mei 2025

ʻElua Ukrenergo Auction: Loaʻa ka 249 MW o nā mālama mālama wikiwiki, me nā ʻenehana mālama ikehu e pāʻani ana i kahi kuleana nui.

Ua pae ka waihona ikehu nui o Wenergy ma Ukraine

 

ʻO ka hoʻololi kulekele

ʻO ka mea e mahalo nui ai iā mākou e pili ana iā Ukraine ʻaʻole wale ka wikiwiki o ka lawe ʻana - ʻo ia ka maʻalahi o ka hoʻolālā kulekele i kūkulu ʻia i ka manawa like. Ma lalo o ʻekolu mau makahiki, ua kūkulu ʻo Ukraine i kekahi o nā ʻōnaehana hoʻoikaika ikaika loa o ka honua. E hele kākou ma nā pou kī:

ʻO ka ʻīpuka koʻikoʻi koʻikoʻi

Mai Iulai 2024, ua haʻalele ʻo Ukraine nā VAT a me nā dute lawe mai ma nā lako mālama ikehu, nā panela lā, a me nā ʻōnaehana hana mana. Ua hoʻonui ʻia kēia kulekele ma o 2028. No kēlā me kēia ʻoihana e noʻonoʻo ana i ka hoʻopukapuka mālama ʻana, hoʻopau kēia i kahi pale koʻikoʻi koʻikoʻi.

ʻO ke kumu hoʻohālike "Active Consumer".

ʻO ke kulekele hoʻololi loa paha: ʻo nā ʻoihana a me nā ʻohana e hoʻokomo i ka hanauna a me ka hiki ke mālama i ka hiki ke uhi i kā lākou pono ponoʻī akā kūʻai aku i ke koena uila i ka pā. Hoʻololi kēia i kahi ʻōnaehana mālama mai kahi kikowaena kumu kūʻai maʻemaʻe i mea waiwai loaʻa.

Kānāwai Helu 4777-IX: ʻO ka hoʻoponopono hou ʻana i ka ikehu

Ua pūlima ʻia e ka Pelekikena i Malaki 2025, ua hoʻololi kēia kānāwai ʻāina i nā kānāwai pili i ka ikehu 15. ʻO nā mea koʻikoʻi:

• Hānai-in Premium (FiP) hoʻololi i nā Contracts for Difference (CfD) - he kumu hoʻohālike o ka loaʻa kālā i ʻike ʻia ma ka mākeke
• Ua hoʻonui ʻia nā kudala ʻōmaʻomaʻo a hiki i 2034 - hāʻawi i nā mea hoʻopukapuka i kahi hoʻolālā hoʻolālā makahiki 10
• ʻO Solar+Storage ma ke ʻano he ʻāpana kūʻai kūʻai ʻokoʻa me ka liʻiliʻi he 10% quota - pāpālua i ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana no ka lā a me ka makani kūʻokoʻa
• Hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻo BESS ma lalo o 5 MW mai ka laikini ʻana - e hoʻohaʻahaʻa loa i ka pale no ka mālama ʻana C&I
• Kuleana wahi hui - Hiki i nā mea hoʻohana BESS ke hoʻokomo i ka hanauna me ka waiho ʻana me ka ʻole o kahi laikini kaʻawale
• Hoʻohui mānoanoa maʻalahi - he ala e hiki ai ke komo i ka grid no nā haneli o nā papahana i paʻa i nā pila

Nā polokalamu kālā

 

ʻO ka Economics: No ke aha e mālama ai ka mālama ʻana i kēia manawa
No kēlā me kēia alakaʻi pāʻoihana Ukrainian e loiloi ana inā e hoʻokomo i ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu, ʻaʻole i ʻoi aku ka ikaika o ka ʻoihana. E wāwahi mākou i ka waihona kālā:

1. Arbitrage Peak-Valley
ʻO ke kumu kūʻai kumu kūʻai uila ʻoihana o Ukraine e hana i kahi pālahalaha nui o ke awāwa:

ʻO ka lakene kumu kūʻai kiʻekiʻe-a-awāwa ma kahi o 1.6:1. ʻO ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i nā hola o waho a me ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka wā kiʻekiʻe e hana koke i ka mālama ʻana - ʻoi aku ka nui o nā ʻoihana ikaika.

2. Loaʻa nā lawelawe kōkua

ʻO kēia kahi kahi kūʻokoʻa maoli o ka mākeke o Ukraine. Hāʻawi nā ʻoihana kūʻai aku ʻo Ukrenergo i nā makahiki ʻelima mau makahiki, i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i ka euro no ka hoʻoponopono pinepine - e hāʻawi ana i ka loaʻa kālā paʻa.

Nā hualoaʻa kūʻai aku o Ukrenergo Services Ancillary

• Hoʻopaʻa ʻia ʻo Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) — avg kaumaha €14–15 / MW·h
• AFRR i luna — avg kaumaha €18 / MW·h
• Symmetric aFRR — kaumaha avg €24–27 / MW·h
• Ka lōʻihi o ka ʻaelike 5 makahiki, EUR-denominated
• Hoʻohālikelike i nā kumukūʻai makeke ʻEulopa €1.5–3 / MW·h (5–10x lalo)

ʻO ka ʻike nui: ʻO nā kumukūʻai lawelawe ancillary o Ukraine he 5-10 mau manawa kiʻekiʻe ma mua o nā mākeke ʻEulopa. Hōʻike kēia i ka pono nui o ka hiki ke kaulike grid - a ʻo ia hoʻi, no nā mea mālama mālama, hiki i ka loaʻa kālā o nā lawelawe ancillary ke uhi i kahi hapa nui o nā kumukūʻai hoʻopukapuka, ma mua o ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ka arbitrage a me ka waiwai palekana outage.

3. Palekana Outage & Hoomau Pāʻoihana

Ma waho aʻe o ka loaʻa kālā, aia ka waiwai o ka mea e pale ai i ka mālama ʻana: ka pau ʻana o ka hana, ka pōʻino o nā lako, ka nalowale o ka ʻikepili, a me ke kumukūʻai kanaka no ka hana ʻole me ka mana. No kahi hale hana, halemai, a i ʻole ke kikowaena kamaʻilio, ʻoi aku ke kumu kūʻai o hoʻokahi outage lōʻihi ma mua o ke kumukūʻai makahiki o kahi ʻōnaehana mālama. I loko o ke kaiapuni o Ukraine i kēia manawa, ʻaʻole i manaʻo ʻia kēia "resilience premium" - ʻike ʻia i kēlā me kēia lā.

4. ʻO ke kahawai loaʻa "Active Consumer".

Me ke kaʻina hana kānāwai hou, hiki i nā ʻoihana ke kūʻai aku i nā hanauna koena i ka pā, e hana ana i ke kolu o ka loaʻa kālā. Hiki i kahi ʻōnaehana mālama C&I i hoʻolālā maikaʻi ʻia i ka loaʻa kālā mai nā kahawai like ʻole ʻekolu: hoʻopakele arbitrage, nā lawelawe ancillary, a me ke kūʻai aku i nā mana.

Ke hoʻopukapuka kālā nei ka International Community

ʻAʻole kū kaʻawale ke kūkulu hou ʻana o ka ikehu o Ukraine. ʻO ka hoʻolālā kālā kālā honua e kākoʻo ana iā ia ʻaʻole i loaʻa ma mua:

• EBRD - ka mea hoʻopukapuka kālā nui loa ma Ukraine, e hoʻolālā ana i ka € 2.4 biliona ma 2024 wale nō, € 6.2 biliona mai 2022. Hoʻokumu ʻia kahi € 700 miliona Energy Security Support Facility (ESSF) kūikawā no ka hanauna decentralized, mālama ikehu, a me nā papahana pono.
• Bank Bank / IBRD - $177 miliona ma ke kālā kālā no ka papahana mālama 197 MW o Ukrhydroenergo.
• MIGA - ʻoi aku ma mua o $ 4 biliona i nā hōʻoia pili politika, me ka uhi kaua a me ka hoʻopilikia kīwila.
• EBRD War Risk Facility — €300M+ i loko o ka uhi poho mua e hoʻolilo i ka hāʻawi pāʻoihana e hiki ai i ka wā kaua.
• Ka Waihona Hoʻoponopono Hou o EU - ke kuhikuhi nei i ka € 500M kokoke i ka makahiki 2026, e hoʻoneʻe i ke kapikala pilikino no ka ʻenehana ikehu.

He aha kēia manaʻo no nā ʻoihana Ukrainian: loaʻa ke kapikala. Aia nā ala kālā. Loaʻa nā mīkini ʻinikua pilikia. Kākoʻo ke kahua kulekele i ka hoʻopukapuka kālā. ʻO ka ʻāpana nalo ka ʻike pinepine ʻana i nā hoʻonā kūpono, pehea e hoʻolālā ai i ka papahana, a me ka mea e hui pū ai.

ʻO ka mea e pono ai ʻo Ukraine i kēia manawa

Ma ke aʻo hohonu ʻana i kēia mākeke, ʻike mākou i kekahi mau hakahaka ʻaʻole i hoʻopiha ʻia - a ma kahi a mākou e manaʻoʻiʻo ai aia ka manawa kūpono loa no nā ʻoihana Ukrainian:

• ʻO ka māhele 1-10 MW C&I ʻaʻole mālama ʻia. ʻO ka hapa nui o nā papahana nui e kālele ana i ka pālākiō (10 MW+) a i ʻole ka hale noho (ma lalo o 10 kWh). ʻO ka waena - nā hale hana, nā halemai, nā kikowaena kūʻai, nā hale mahiʻai - kahi i ʻoi aku ka nui o ka pono kūpono a kahi e hiki ai i nā hopena maʻamau ke loaʻa ka hopena wikiwiki.
• Hana anu-anu hiki ole ke kukakuka. Ke koi nei nā hooilo o Ukraine i nā ʻōnaehana mālama ikehu e hana pono ana ma -20°C. ʻAʻole hiki i nā huahana a pau ma ka mākeke honua ke hoʻokō i kēia koi.
• ʻO ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka mokupuni ʻo Grid a me ka hiki ke hoʻomaka ʻeleʻele he mau hiʻohiʻona koʻikoʻi, ʻaʻole nā mea hoʻohui koho. Ma Ukraine, ʻo ka hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale mai kahi pānaehana hemahema a hana ʻokoʻa - a laila kōkua i ka hoʻomaka hou ʻana i ka pahu i ka wā e hoʻi hou ai - he mea pono ia i kēlā me kēia lā, ʻaʻole kahi hiʻohiʻona theoretical.
• ʻO ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻolaha ʻana he mea nui e like me ke kumukūʻai. ʻO kahi ʻōnaehana e lawe ana i 12 mahina e hoʻopuka ai ʻoi aku ka waiwai ma mua o ka mea hiki ke hana i loko o 6 pule. Hoʻololi ke kūlana ikehu o Ukraine i ka pule.
• Hoʻohui me nā lawelawe ancillary - ʻo nā ʻōnaehana mālama C&I maikaʻi loa nā mea hiki ke komo i nā kudala hoʻoponopono pinepine o Ukrenergo, me ka hoʻohui ʻana i kahi kahawai kālā e hoʻomaikaʻi nui ai i ka ROI.

Wenergy's C&I hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ka ikehu i hoʻonohonoho ʻia ma Ukraine

ʻAʻole wale ʻo Ukraine e kūkulu hou i kahi mana mana. Ke hana nei ia i kumu hoʻohālike hou no ka hoʻokō ʻana o ka lāhui i ke kūpaʻa ikaika ma lalo o nā kūlana paʻakikī loa. Ke nānā nei ka honua, a ke aʻo mai nei ka honua iā ʻoe.

Ma Wenergy, ua hoʻohana mākou i nā makahiki he nui e hoʻomaopopo i ka ʻenehana mālama ʻana i ka pākaukau, ka hoʻohui ʻana i ka grid, a me ka hoʻokele waiwai o ke kūʻokoʻa ikehu. ʻIke mākou i nā ʻōnaehana LFP, ka hana anuanu, ka hana ʻana o ka mokupuni, a me ka hiki ke hoʻomaka ʻeleʻele. Akā ʻo ka mea nui, ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei mākou ua kūkulu ʻia nā pilina maoli ma luna o ka ʻike - ʻaʻole nā kālepa wale nō.

Inā he EPC ʻoe, he mea hoʻomohala papahana, he hui ikehu, he mea hoʻohana ʻenehana, a i ʻole e ʻimi wale ana i kāu papahana mālama ikehu mua - me ka nānā ʻole i ka nui o ka papahana a i ʻole ke kahua, e hauʻoli mākou e kamaʻilio. He ʻōnaehana C&I liʻiliʻi paha ia a i ʻole he papahana pono. Loaʻa paha iā ʻoe kahi papahana, a i ʻole ke ʻimi wale nei ʻoe i ka mea hiki. ʻAʻohe kahua kūʻai paʻakikī. He kamaʻilio wale nō ma waena o ka poʻe mālama i ka mea like:

Ke kūkulu ʻana i Ukraine ʻaʻole e pōʻeleʻele hou.