Xa izibane zicima, awugcini nje ukulahlekelwa ngumbane - ulahlekelwa ukufudumala, ukhuseleko, ukudibanisa, kunye nesigqi sobomi obuqhelekileyo. I-Ukraine iphile le nyaniso. Kodwa kobo bumnyama, kuvela into engaqhelekanga: ulwakhiwo olutsha lwamandla olwakhelwe ekomeleleni, ukunabisa amagunya, kunye nokuzimisela ukuba ungaze uphinde ube sesichengeni.

Sichithe iminyaka sifunda iimarike zokugcina amandla kulo lonke elaseYurophu - eSpain, eItali, ePoland, kwiiBaltics. Kodwa akukho ndawo sikubonileyo okwenzekayo eUkraine ngoku. Ayilobali lemarike. Libali lesizwe esakha ngokutsha ubuwena bamandla aso ngexesha lokwenyani, phantsi kweemeko elingazange lajongana nelinye ilizwe.

Eli nqaku lilinge lethu lokuqonda into ohamba kuyo - hayi njengabangaphandle abajonge ngaphakathi, kodwa njengamaqabane akholelwa ukuba ikamva lamandla e-Ukraine lelinye lawona mabali abalulekileyo kwixesha lethu. Asizenzi ngathi siyayazi ukuba kunjani ukuphila ngale nto uphila kuyo. Kodwa siyaziqonda iibhetri, iigridi zamandla, kunye noqoqosho lokuzimela kwamandla. Kwaye sifuna ukwabelana ngento esiyibonayo - kuba siyakholelwa kule nto uyakhayo.

Isikali sento ebilahlekile

Ukuqonda apho imarike yokugcina amandla yaseUkraine iya khona, kufuneka siqale sinyaniseke malunga noko kulahlekileyo. Phambi kowama-2022, iUkraine yasebenzisa enye yezona nkqubo zamandla zaseYurophu - malunga I-40 GW yomthamo ofakiweyo, ixhaswe yinyukliya, i-thermal, kunye nombane osebenza ngamanzi. Yayiyinkqubo eyenzelwe ilizwe elinoxolo elinabantu abazizigidi ezingama-40. Kwandula ke kwafika uhlaselo. Ecwangcisiweyo, ekujoliswe kuyo, kwaye etshabalalisayo.

• Inkqubo yaMandla yaseUkraine: Ngaphambi nasemva
• Umthamo ofakwe ngaphambili kwemfazwe~ 40 GW
• Umthamo okhoyo (uqikelelo lwaphakathi ku-2024)~ 10 GW
• Isizukulwana se-thermal sonakalisiwe okanye sitshatyalalisiwe> 80%
• Ingqikelelo yokunqongophala kwamandla ebusika~ 6 GW
• Ukungabikho kwemihla ngemihla eKyiv (incopho ka-2024)> iiyure ezili-10

Phantse isibini kwisithathu somthamo wamandla othunyelwayo waseUkraine wonakalisiwe, atshatyalalisiwe, okanye abekwe kwindawo ehlaselweyo. Umongameli uZelensky uye wachaza esidlangalaleni ukuba amaza ohlaselo amaninzi atshabalalise malunga nesiqingatha samandla elizwe. Kwizixeko ezikhulu, izakhiwo zinyamezele ukucuthwa kwamandla emihla ngemihla okudlula iiyure ezili-10 - ebusika, amaqondo obushushu ehla ukuya kuthi ga kwi-20°C.

Kodwa nantsi eyona nto isibetha kakhulu: IUkraine ayizange inikezele ebumnyameni. Endaweni yoko, lenze isigqibo sobuchule sokuba amazwe ambalwa anokuba nesibindi sokusenza phantsi kweemeko ezinjalo: ukuyila ngokutsha inkqubo yayo yamandla malunga nokwabiwa kwamagunya, ukusasazwa kwesizukulwana, kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla.

Asisaxoxi ukuba ingaba iUkraine idinga isizukulwana esasasazwayo. Sixoxa ngendlela yokunyusa ngokukhawuleza. Ukuqina akunqunywanga kuphela ngumthamo wombane owenziweyo, kodwa ngokwakhiwa kwenkqubo yamandla.

- UValentyna Moskalenko, uSekela Mphathiswa wezaMandla waseUkraine

Umbono: Iiseli zamandla

Impendulo ye-Ukraine kubuthathaka obuphakathi ngumbono we "Iiseli zaMandla" - amaqela azimeleyo okanye azimeleyo apho iziseko zophuhliso ezibalulekileyo zingaqhubeka nokusebenza nangona igridi ephakathi yonakalisiwe. Oku akuyongcamango yobugcisa kuphela; yintanda-bulumko yokomelela kwesizwe.

Uyilo lwezakhiwo lunemigangatho emithathu:

• Isiseko senyukliya: Izityalo zeNyukliya zibonelela ngozinzo kwigridi engenakutshintshwa. I-Ukraine iya kuqhubeka nokuphuhlisa icandelo layo lenyukliya njengomqolo.
• Ukuguquguquka & umaleko wokugcina: Isizukulwana esiguquguqukayo, iinkqubo zokugcina amandla ebhetri (BESS), kunye nezixhobo zesizukulwana esitsha ezisasazwe kwimimandla enentsilelo enkulu yombane - emantla, empuma, nakumazantsi eUkraine, kunye nommandla waseKyiv.
• Ukuzimela kwendawo: Ukuhlanganiswa, iiyunithi zegesi ezincinci, ubushushu obunabileyo kunye nonikezelo lwamanzi - olulawulwa ngabasemagunyeni basekhaya, ukuxhobisa uluntu ukuba lukwazi ukuzimela.

Oku kuthetha ntoni kugcino lwamandla kunzulu: iibhetri aziseyiyo "inketho eluhlaza" okanye "intle-ukuba nayo." Zihlelwa njenge Iziseko ezingundoqo zokhuseleko lwesizwe. Bahlala ekudibaneni komgaqo-nkqubo wamandla, iqhinga lokukhusela, kunye nokuqina koluntu.

Ibambela le-CEO ye-Ukrenergo u-Oleksii Brekht ukuthethile oko ubuncinane i-1.5 GW yomthamo wokugcina iya kufuneka kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo ukugcina nje ukusebenza kwegridi ethembekileyo. Eso sisiphawu semfuno yeminyaka elishumi-kwaye sisiqalo nje.

Esona siGcobo saMandla siKhawulezayo esakhiweyo eYurophu

Nantsi apho ibali lihamba ukusuka embonweni ukuya kwinyani - kwaye amanani ayamangalisa. Ngomnyaka omnye, amandla okugcina amandla e-Ukraine afakwe ngaphezulu 300 amaxesha, ngaphezu kwe-600 MW. Ngokutsho kweSolarPower yaseYurophu "Intengiso yeBattery yaseYurophu 2026-2030," iUkraine yongeze malunga I-3 GWh yomthamo webhetri ngo-2025 yedwa, ukujoyina iinkokheli ezintlanu eziphezulu zaseYurophu ekukhuleni komthamo wokugcina - ecaleni kweJamani, i-UK, ne-Itali.

• Ukugcinwa kwamandla e-Ukraine: Amanani angundoqo
• Umthamo wokugcina ofakiweyo (ukuphela kuka-2025)> 600 MW (300x ukukhula YOY)
• Umthamo omtsha webhetri wongezwe ngo-2025~ 3GWh
• Uluhlu lwaseYurophuTop 5 ekukhuleni
• Ugcino oluqikelelweyo ngo-2030 (olulondolozayo)1.5 GW
• Ugcino oluqikelelweyo ngo-2030 (uqikelelo lwemarike)2,750 MWh
• Imakethi eqikelelweyo yokugcina ibhetri ngo-2026~ $2.1 yebhiliyoni (+180%)

Yintoni eyenza oku kuphawuleka: Uninzi lwamazwe aseYurophu athatha iminyaka eyi-5-10 ukufikelela kwi-GWh yokuqala yokugcina. I-Ukraine iyenzile phantsi kweminyaka emibini - ukusuka kwisiseko esikufutshane-zero, phantsi kwemfazwe esebenzayo, kunye namatyathanga okubonelela adlula ePoland naseRomania. Oku asikokukhula kwemarike okuqhelekileyo. Esi sisizwe esakha amaziko aso okusinda ngexesha lemfazwe.

Iiprojekthi zeLandmark

NgoSeptemba 2025

DTEK + Fluence: 200 MW / 400 MWh -Eyona ndawo inkulu yokugcina amandla eMpuma Yurophu, ithatha indawo ezintandathu kwingingqi yaseKyiv naseDnipropetrovsk. I-125 yezigidi zotyalo-mali. Iiyunithi ezingama-698 zeFluence Gridstack. Kwanele ukunika amandla amakhaya angama-600,000 iiyure ezimbini. Ugunyaziswe ngaphandle kweengozi zemfazwe-uphawu olunamandla lokuba ishishini likulungele ukutyala imali kwikamva laseUkraine.

2024-Iyaqhubeka

Ukrhydroenergo: 197 MW BESS + 35,9 MW Solar - Iprojekthi edibeneyo karhulumente edibanisa ukuveliswa kombane wamanzi kunye nokugcinwa kwebhetri kunye nelanga, ixhaswa ngemali yiBhanki yehlabathi (i-$ 177M) kunye neNgxowa-mali yeTekhnoloji ecocekileyo (i-$ 104M). Okokuqala ngqa ukuba inkampani karhulumente yase-Ukraine iphumeze iprojekthi enkulu ye-BESS esekwe kwinkxaso-mali karhulumente yamazwe ngamazwe.

EyeThupha 2024

Ifandesi yeeNkonzo eziNcedisayo zokuqala zaseUkrenergo - Iinkampani ezingama-39 ziye zakhuphisana nge-99 MW yeekontraki zokugcinwa kwezinto rhoqo. 12 abaphumeleleyo. Iminyaka emihlanu, izivumelwano ze-euro-denominated. Esi siganeko esisodwa sasungula imarike yokugcina yorhwebo e-Ukraine.

Meyi 2025

Ifandesi yesibini yaseUkrenergo: I-249 MW yolondolozo olukhawulezayo oluthengiweyo, kunye nobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla obudlala indima ephambili.

Indawo enkulu yokugcina amandla kaWenergy yahlala eUkraine

 

Utshintsho loMgaqo-nkqubo

Eyona nto isichukumisa kakhulu malunga neUkraine ayikona nje isantya sokuthunyelwa - bubugocigoci besakhelo somgaqo-nkqubo esakhiwa ngaxeshanye. Ngaphantsi kweminyaka emithathu, iUkraine yakha enye yezona nkqubo zinamandla zokukhuthaza ukugcinwa kwamandla emhlabeni. Makhe sihambe ngeentsika eziphambili:

Zero-Tariff Gateway

Ukusukela ngoJulayi 2024, iUkraine iyekile yonke i-VAT kunye nemirhumo yokungenisa elizweni kwizixhobo zokugcina amandla, iiphaneli zelanga, kunye neenkqubo zokuvelisa amandla. Lo mgaqo-nkqubo uye wandiswa 2028. Kulo naliphi na ishishini eliqwalasela utyalo-mali lokugcina, oku kuphelisa umqobo weendleko ezinkulu.

Imodeli “yoMthengi osebenzayo”

Mhlawumbi owona mgaqo-nkqubo wenguqu: amashishini kunye nemizi efakela ukuveliswa kunye nomthamo wokugcina awukwazi ukugubungela kuphela iimfuno zabo kodwa thengisa umbane oshiyekileyo ubuyele kwigridi. Oku kuguqula inkqubo yokugcina ukusuka kwiziko elicocekileyo leendleko kwi-asethi yokuvelisa ingeniso.

Inombolo yomthetho 4777-IX: Ukuguqulwa kwaMandla aVuselelwayo

Isayinwe nguMongameli ngoMatshi ka-2025, lo mthetho ubalulekileyo uguqule imithetho eli-15 enxulumene namandla. Amagqabantshintshi:

• I-Fid-in Premium (FiP) ithatha indawo yeContracts for Difference (CfD) — imodeli yengeniso ecace ngakumbi, elungelelaniswe nemarike
• Iifandesi eziluhlaza zandiswe ukuya kutsho ngo-2034 - ukunika abatyali-mali i-10-year horizon yokucwangcisa
• ISolar+UGcino njengodidi olwahlukileyo lwefandesi kunye ne-10% encinci ye-quota - kabini ulwabiwo lwelanga elizimeleyo okanye umoya
• I-BESS engaphantsi kwe-5 MW ikhululwe kwilayisensi - ngokumangalisayo ukwehlisa umqobo kwi-C&I yokugcina
• Amalungelo endawo -Abaqhubi be-BESS banokufaka isizukulwana ecaleni kwendawo yokugcina ngaphandle kwelayisensi eyahlukileyo
• Uqhagamshelwano lwegridi ethambileyo - indlela yokufikelela kwigridi kumakhulu eeprojekthi ezibambeke emgceni

IiNkqubo zeMali

 

UQoqosho: Kutheni uGcino Lusenza Ingqiqo ngoku
Kuyo nayiphi na inkokeli yeshishini yaseUkraine evavanya ukuba ityale imali yokugcina amandla, uqoqosho alufane lube lunyanzelise ngakumbi. Makhe sicazulule isixa sengeniso:

1. I-Peak-Valley Arbitrage
Ulwakhiwo lwamaxabiso ombane kwimizi-mveliso yaseUkraine ludala usasazo olubalulekileyo lwentlambo:

Incopho-kwintlambo yomlinganiselo wexabiso malunga ne-1.6:1. Ukutshaja ngexesha leeyure ezingabizi kakhulu kunye nokukhupha ngexesha lencopho kudala ugcino olukhawulezileyo, olunokulinganiswa - ngakumbi kumashishini asebenzisa amandla amakhulu.

2. INgeniso yeeNkonzo eziNcedisayo

Kulapho imakethi yaseUkraine yodwa ngokwenene. Iifandesi zeenkonzo ezincedisayo zexesha elide zase-Ukrenergo zibonelela ngeminyaka emihlanu, iikontraka ze-euro-ezibizwa ngokuba yi-euro-denominated regulation - ukubonelela ngengeniso eqinisekisiweyo, ebhankini:

Iziphumo zeFandesi yeeNkonzo eziNcedisayo zase-Ukrenergo

• I-Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) - i-weighted avg €14–15 / MW · h
• Phezulu kwe-aFRR - i-avg enobunzima €18 / MW · h
• I-symmetric aFRR - i-weighted avg €24–27 / MW · h
• Ubude bekhontrakthi Iminyaka emi-5, i-EUR-denominated
• Amaxabiso emarike aseYurophu anokuthelekiswa €1.5–3 / MW·h (5–10x ngaphantsi)

Umbono ophambili: Amaxabiso eenkonzo ezincedisayo zaseUkraine ngama-5-10 amaxesha aphezulu kuneemarike ezivuthiweyo zaseYurophu. Oku kubonakalisa imfuno egqithisileyo yomthamo wokulinganisa igridi - kwaye kuthetha ukuba kubasebenzi bokugcina, ingeniso yeenkonzo ezincedisayo yodwa inokugubungela inxalenye enkulu yeendleko zotyalo-mali, ngaphambi kokuqwalasela i-arbitrage kunye nexabiso lokukhusela ukuphuma.

3. UKhuseleko oluNgaphandle kunye nokuQhubekeka kweShishini

Ngaphandle kwengeniso ethe ngqo, kukho ixabiso lokuthintela ukugcinwa: ukukhutshwa kwemveliso, umonakalo wezixhobo, ukulahleka kwedatha, kunye neendleko zomntu zokusebenza ngaphandle kwamandla. Kumzi-mveliso, isibhedlele, okanye iziko lonxibelelwano, iindleko zokucima okongezelelekileyo zinokuba ngaphezu kweendleko zonyaka zenkqubo yokugcina izinto. Kwimeko yangoku yaseUkraine, le "premium yokuqina" ayiyothiyori - ibonwa yonke imihla.

4. INgeniso yeNgeniso “yoMthengi osebenzayo”

Ngesakhelo somthetho esitsha, amashishini anokuthengisa imveliso eyintsalela ebuyela kwigridi, edala umaleko wesithathu wengeniso. Inkqubo ye-C&I eyilwe kakuhle yelanga + yokugcina inokuvelisa ingeniso kwimisinga emithathu ngaxeshanye: ugcino lwe-arbitrage, iinkonzo ezincedisayo, kunye nokuthengiswa kwamandla angaphezulu.

Uluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe luTyalo-mali

Ukwakhiwa kwakhona kwamandla eUkraine akwenzeki bodwa. Uyilo lwezemali lwamazwe ngamazwe oluxhasayo alunakuze lubonwe ngaphambili:

• I-EBRD - umtyalo-mali omkhulu kwiziko e-Ukraine, ehambisa i-2.4 yezigidigidi kwi-2024 yedwa, i-6.2 yezigidigidi ukususela ngo-2022. Iqalise i-700 yezigidi ze-Energy Security Support Facility (ESSF) ngokukodwa kwi-decentralized generation, ukugcinwa kwamandla, kunye neeprojekthi ezifanelekileyo.
• IBhanki yehlabathi / IBRD — I-177 yezigidi zeerandi kwinkxaso-mali yeprojekthi yokugcina i-Ukrhydroenergo ye-197 MW.
• I-MIGA - ngaphezulu kwe-4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwiziqinisekiso zomngcipheko wezopolitiko, kubandakanya imfazwe kunye nokuphazamiseka koluntu.
• I-EBRD War Risk Facility - € 300M+ kwilahleko yokuqala ukwenza imali-mboleko yorhwebo isebenze ngexesha lemfazwe.
• INgxowa-mali yoKwakha iFlegi ye-EU - ejolise kwi-€ 500M yokuqala vala ngo-2026, ukudibanisa inkunzi yabucala yeziseko zamandla.

Kuthetha ukuthini oku kumashishini aseUkraine: inkunzi iyafumaneka. Imijelo yenkxaso-mali ikhona. Iindlela ze-inshorensi yomngcipheko zikhona. Isakhelo somgaqo-nkqubo sixhasa utyalo-mali. Isiqwenga esilahlekileyo sihlala sisazi ukuba zeziphi izisombululo ezifanelekileyo, indlela yokumisa iprojekthi, kunye nokuba ngubani oza kusebenzisana naye.

Yintoni efunwa yiUkraine ngoku

Emva kokuba siyifunde nzulu le ntengiso, sibona izithuba ezininzi ezingekazaliswa-kwaye apho sikholelwa ukuba elona thuba likhulu likumashishini aseUkraine:

• Icandelo le-1–10 MW C&I akancedwa. Uninzi lweeprojekthi ezinkulu zijolise kwisikali sombane (10 MW+) okanye indawo yokuhlala (ngaphantsi kwe-10 kWh). Embindini - iifektri, izibhedlele, amaziko orhwebo, amaziko ezolimo - kulapho imfuno ebonakalayo inzima kakhulu kwaye apho izisombululo ezisemgangathweni zinokuba nefuthe elikhawulezayo.
• Ukusebenza kwemozulu ebandayo ayixoxisi. Ubusika baseUkraine bufuna iinkqubo zokugcina amandla ezisebenza ngokuthembekileyo kwi -20°C. Ayizizo zonke iimveliso kwimarike yehlabathi ezinokuhlangabezana nale mfuneko.
• Ukutshintsha kwe-Grid-island kunye nokukwazi ukuqala okumnyama ziimpawu ezibalulekileyo, hayi ezongezo ozikhethelayo. E-Ukraine, ukukwazi ukuqhawula kwigridi engasebenziyo kwaye usebenze ngokuzimeleyo - emva koko uncede uqalise kwakhona igridi xa iphinda ibuyele - yinto eyimfuneko yemihla ngemihla, kungekhona imeko yethiyori.
• Isantya sokusasazwa sibalulekile njengeendleko. Inkqubo ethatha iinyanga ezili-12 ukuyihambisa ayixabisekanga kangako kuneyona inokusebenza kwiiveki ezi-6. Imeko yamandla e-Ukraine itshintsha ngeveki.
• Ukudityaniswa neenkonzo ezincedisayo - ezona zixhobo zokugcina i-C & I ezingcono kakhulu zinokuthi zithathe inxaxheba kwiifandesi zokulawula i-Ukrenergo, zongeza ingeniso yengeniso ephucula kakhulu i-ROI.

Iprojekthi yeWenergy yeC&I yokugcina amandla isetyenziswe eUkraine

I-Ukraine ayigcini nje ukwakha igridi yamandla. Kukudala imodeli entsha yendlela isizwe esifezekisa ngayo ukomelela kwamandla phantsi kwezona meko zinzima kakhulu ezinokucingeleka. Ihlabathi libukele, kwaye ihlabathi liyafunda kuwe.

E-Wenergy, sichithe iminyaka siqonda itekhnoloji yokugcina ibhetri, ukudityaniswa kwegridi, kunye noqoqosho lokuzimela kwamandla. Siyazazi iinkqubo ze-LFP, ukusebenza kwemozulu ebandayo, ukusebenza kwimowudi yesiqithi, kunye nobuchule bokuqalisa abamnyama. Kodwa okona kubaluleke kakhulu, sikholelwa ukuba intsebenziswano yokwenyani yakhelwe ekuqondeni - hayi intengiselwano kuphela.

Nokuba uyi-EPC, umphuhlisi weprojekthi, inkampani yamandla, umsebenzisi weshishini, okanye uphonononga iprojekthi yakho yokuqala yokugcina amandla - kungakhathaliseki ubungakanani beprojekthi okanye isigaba, singakuvuyela ukuthetha. Isenokuba yinkqubo encinci ye-C&I okanye iprojekthi yesikali esiluncedo. Usenokuba sele unayo iprojekthi, okanye usenokuba uphonononga oko kunokwenzeka. Akukho mgangatho wokuthengisa onzima. Incoko nje phakathi kwabantu abakhathalele into enye:

Ukwakha i-Ukraine engayi kuba mnyama kwakhona.