Iyo amatara azimye, ntutakaza amashanyarazi gusa - ubura ubushyuhe, umutekano, guhuza, nigitekerezo cyubuzima busanzwe. Ukraine yabayeho. Ariko kuva muri uwo mwijima, hagaragara ikintu kidasanzwe: imyubakire mishya yubakiye ku kwihangana, kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage, no kwiyemeza kutazongera kwibasirwa ukundi.

Tumaze imyaka twiga amasoko yo kubika ingufu muburayi - Espagne, Ubutaliyani, Polonye, Baltique. Ariko nta hantu na hamwe twabonye ibibera muri Ukraine muri iki gihe. Ntabwo ari inkuru yisoko. Ninkuru yigihugu cyubaka ikiranga ingufu mugihe nyacyo, mubihe ntakindi gihugu cyahuye nacyo.

Iyi ngingo nugushaka kumva ibyo urimo - ntabwo ari abanyamahanga bareba, ariko nkabafatanyabikorwa bizera ko ingufu za Ukraine zizaza nimwe mumateka yingenzi mugihe cacu. Ntabwo twitwaza ngo tumenye uko byumva kubaho mubyo urimo. Ariko twumva bateri, amashanyarazi, nubukungu bwubwigenge bwingufu. Turashaka gusangira ibyo tubona - kuko twemera ibyo wubaka.

Igipimo cyibyatakaye

Kugira ngo twumve aho isoko yo kubika ingufu za Ukraine igana, tugomba mbere na mbere kuba inyangamugayo kubyatakaye. Mbere ya 2022, Ukraine yakoresheje imwe mu mashanyarazi manini y’Uburayi - hafi 40 GW yubushobozi bwashyizweho, byometse ku gisekuru cya kirimbuzi, ubushyuhe, n’amashanyarazi. Yari sisitemu yagenewe igihugu cyamahoro cyabantu miliyoni 40. Hanyuma ibitero biraza. Itunganijwe, igamije, kandi irasenya.

• Sisitemu y'ingufu za Ukraine: Mbere & Nyuma
• Ubushobozi bwashizweho mbere yintambara~ 40 GW
• Ubushobozi buboneka (igereranya hagati ya 2024)~ 10 GW
• Amashanyarazi yubushyuhe yangiritse cyangwa yarasenyutse> 80%
• Biteganijwe ko ubushobozi bwimbeho buteganijwe~ 6 GW
• Ibura rya buri munsi muri Kyiv (impinga ya 2024)> Amasaha 10

Hafi ya bibiri bya gatatu byububasha bwoherejwe na Ukraine byangiritse, birasenywa, cyangwa biherereye mubutaka bwigaruriwe. Perezida Zelensky yatangaje ku mugaragaro ko ibitero byinshi byangije hafi kimwe cya kabiri cy’ingufu z’igihugu. Mu mijyi minini, inyubako zihanganiye igabanuka rya buri munsi rirenga amasaha 10 - mu gihe cy'itumba, ubushyuhe bukamanuka kuri -20 ° C.

Ariko dore icyadutangaje cyane: Ukraine ntiyishyize mu mwijima. Ahubwo, yafashe icyemezo cy’ibihugu ibihugu bike byagira ubutwari bwo gufata mu bihe nk'ibi: kuvugurura byimazeyo ingufu z’ingufu zijyanye no kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage, gukwirakwiza ibisekuru, no kubika ingufu.

Ntabwo tugikora impaka niba Ukraine ikeneye ibisekuruza byagabanijwe. Turimo kuganira uburyo bwo kuyipima vuba bishoboka. Kwihangana ntigenwa gusa nubunini bwamashanyarazi yatanzwe, ahubwo nububiko bwa sisitemu yingufu.

- Valentyna Moskalenko, Minisitiri w’ingufu wungirije wa Ukraine

Icyerekezo: Ingirabuzimafatizo

Igisubizo cya Ukraine kubibazo byugarijwe ni imyumvire ya “Ingirabuzimafatizo” - cluster yigenga cyangwa igice cyigenga aho ibikorwa remezo bikomeye bishobora gukomeza gukora nubwo gride yo hagati yangiritse. Iki ntabwo ari igitekerezo cya tekiniki gusa; ni filozofiya yo kwihanganira igihugu.

Ubwubatsi bufite ibice bitatu:

• Urufatiro rwa kirimbuzi: Ibimera bya kirimbuzi bitanga imiyoboro ihamye idashobora gusimburwa. Ukraine izakomeza guteza imbere urwego rwa kirimbuzi nkumugongo.
• Guhindura & kubika urwego: Igisekuru cyoroshye, sisitemu yo kubika ingufu za batiri (BESS), hamwe nibikoresho bishya byakorewe mu turere dufite ibura ryinshi ry’amashanyarazi - amajyaruguru, uburasirazuba, n’amajyepfo ya Ukraine, wongeyeho akarere ka Kyiv.
• Ubwigenge bwaho: Cogeneration, ibice bito bya gaze, ubushyuhe bwo kwegereza abaturage amazi n’amazi - bayoborwa ninzego zibanze, bigaha abaturage ubushobozi bwo kwihaza.

Icyo ibi bivuze kubika ingufu ni ndende: bateri ntikiri "icyatsi kibisi" cyangwa "icyiza-cyo-kugira." Bashyizwe mu rwego rwa ibikorwa remezo bikomeye by’umutekano w’igihugu. Bicaye ku masangano ya politiki y’ingufu, ingamba zo kwirwanaho, no guhangana n’abaturage.

Umuyobozi mukuru w'agateganyo wa Ukrenergo, Oleksii Brekht, yatangaje ko byibuze 1.5 GW yububiko irashobora gukenerwa mumyaka icumi iri imbere gusa kugirango ukomeze ibikorwa byizewe bya gride. Nicyo kimenyetso cyimyaka icumi isaba - kandi ni intangiriro.

Kubika Ingufu Zihuta Kubaka-Uburayi

Hano niho inkuru iva mubyerekezo igana mubyukuri - kandi imibare iratangaje. Mu mwaka umwe, Ukraine yashyizeho ubushobozi bwo kubika ingufu ziyongereye kurenza Inshuro 300, irenga MW 600. Dukurikije SolarPower Uburayi “Isoko rya Batiri yo mu Burayi 2026–2030,” Ukraine yongeyeho hafi 3 GWh yubushobozi bwa bateri muri 2025 wenyine, kwifatanya n'abayobozi batanu ba mbere b'Abanyaburayi mu kongera ubushobozi bwo kubika - hamwe n'Ubudage, Ubwongereza, n'Ubutaliyani.

• Ububiko bw'ingufu za Ukraine: Umubare w'ingenzi
• Ubushobozi bwo kubika bwashyizweho (impera za 2025)> MW 600 (gukura 300x YoY)
• Ubushobozi bushya bwa batiri bwongeyeho muri 2025~ 3 GWh
• Urutonde rwiburayi5 ya mbere mu mikurire
• Ububiko buteganijwe muri 2030 (conservateur)1.5 GW
• Ububiko buteganijwe muri 2030 (igereranya ryisoko)MWh 750
• Isoko ryo kubika batiri biteganijwe muri 2026~ Miliyari 2.1 z'amadolari (+ 180%)

Ni iki gituma ibi bidasanzwe: Ibihugu byinshi byu Burayi byatwaye imyaka 5-10 kugirango bigere kuri GWh yambere yububiko. Ukraine yabikoze mu myaka ibiri - uhereye kuri zero hafi ya zeru, mu ntambara ikomeye, hamwe n'iminyururu yatanzwe muri Polonye na Rumaniya. Ntabwo kuzamuka kwisoko bisanzwe. Iki nigihugu cyubaka ibikorwa remezo byo kubaho kumuvuduko wintambara.

Imishinga Yibanze

Nzeri 2025

DTEK + Fluence: 200 MW / 400 MWh - Ikigo kinini kibika ingufu mu Burayi bwi Burasirazuba, kizenguruka ahantu hatandatu hakurya ya Kyiv na Dnipropetrovsk. Amayero miliyoni 125. 698 Ibice bya Fluence. Birahagije guha ingufu ingo 600.000 mumasaha abiri. Yashinzwe nubwo hashobora kubaho intambara - ikimenyetso gikomeye cyerekana ko ubucuruzi bwiteguye gushora imari muri kazoza ka Ukraine.

2024 - Birakomeje

Ukrhydroenergo: 197 MW BESS + 35.9 MW Solar - Umushinga wa leta wa Hybrid uhuza ingufu z'amashanyarazi hamwe no kubika batiri n'izuba, uterwa inkunga na Banki y'Isi ($ 177M) n'Ikigega cy'ikoranabuhanga gifite isuku ($ 104M). Ku nshuro ya mbere isosiyete ya Leta ya Ukraine yashyize mu bikorwa umushinga munini wa BESS ishingiye ku nkunga mpuzamahanga.

Kanama 2024

Serivisi yambere ya Ukrenergo - Ibigo 39 byahataniraga MW MW 99 byamasezerano yo kubika ibintu. Abatsinze 12. Imyaka itanu, amasezerano yama euro. Iki gikorwa kimwe cyatangije isoko ryubucuruzi muri Ukraine.

Gicurasi 2025

Cyamunara ya kabiri Ukrenergo: 249 MW yububiko bwihuse bwaguzwe, hamwe nubuhanga bwo kubika ingufu bugira uruhare runini.

Ububiko bunini bwa Wenergy bwaguye muri Ukraine

 

Impinduramatwara ya Politiki

Icyadushimishije cyane muri Ukraine ntabwo ari umuvuduko wo kohereza gusa - ni ubuhanga bwibikorwa bya politiki byubatswe icyarimwe. Mu gihe kitarenze imyaka itatu, Ukraine yubatse imwe muri sisitemu yo kubika ingufu zikaze ku isi. Reka tunyure mu nkingi z'ingenzi:

Irembo rya Zeru

Kuva muri Nyakanga 2024, Ukraine yaretse umusoro ku nyongeragaciro no gutumiza mu mahanga ku bikoresho bibika ingufu, imirasire y'izuba, hamwe na sisitemu yo kubyara amashanyarazi. Iyi politiki yongerewe binyuze 2028. Kubucuruzi ubwo aribwo bwose butekereza gushora mububiko, ibi bikuraho inzitizi ikomeye yibiciro.

Icyitegererezo cya "Umuguzi Ukora"

Ahari politiki ihindura cyane: ubucuruzi ningo zishyiraho ibisekuruza nubushobozi bwo kubika ntibishobora guhaza ibyo bakeneye gusa ariko kugurisha amashanyarazi asagutse kuri gride. Ibi bihindura sisitemu yo kubika kuva mubiciro byigiciro cyumutungo winjiza amafaranga.

Itegeko No 4777-IX: Kuvugurura ingufu zisubirwamo

Yashyizweho umukono na Perezida muri Werurwe 2025, iri tegeko ry’ingenzi ryavuguruye amategeko 15 ajyanye n’ingufu. Ingingo z'ingenzi:

• Kugaburira muri Premium (FiP) isimbuza Amasezerano yo Gutandukana (CfD) - uburyo bworoshye bwo kwinjiza, guhuza isoko
• Icyamunara kibisi cyageze kuri 2034 - guha abashoramari igenamigambi ryimyaka 10
• Solar + Ububiko nkicyiciro cyamunara gitandukanye hamwe byibuze 10% kwota - gukuba kabiri kugenerwa izuba cyangwa umuyaga uhagaze
• BESS munsi ya MW 5 yasonewe uruhushya - kugabanya cyane inzitizi yo kubika C&I
• Uburenganzira bwo gufatanya - Abakoresha BESS barashobora gushiraho ibisekuruza hamwe nububiko nta ruhushya rwihariye
• Umuyoboro woroshye - inzira yo kugera kuri gride yimishinga amagana yumurongo

Gahunda yo Gutera inkunga

 

Ubukungu: Impamvu Ububiko Bwumvikana Nubu
Ku muyobozi uwo ari we wese w’ubucuruzi wo muri Ukraine asuzuma niba gushora imari mu kubika ingufu, ubukungu bwabaye gake cyane. Reka dusenye amafaranga yinjira:

1. Arbitrage ya Peak-Valley
Imiterere y’igiciro cy’amashanyarazi muri Ukraine itera impinga nini-ikwirakwizwa:

Ikigereranyo cyo hejuru yibibaya ni 1.6: 1. Kwishyuza mugihe cyamasaha yumunsi no gusohora mugihe cyo hejuru bitanga ubwizigame bwihuse, bupimwa - cyane cyane mubikorwa bikoresha ingufu.

2. Amafaranga yinjira muri serivisi zinyongera

Aha niho isoko rya Ukraine ryihariye. Serivisi ishinzwe kugurisha igihe kirekire ya Ukrenergo itanga imyaka 5, amasezerano yama euro yo kugenzura inshuro - gutanga amafaranga yizewe, amabanki:

Ibisubizo bya cyamunara ya Ukrenergo

• Ikigega cya Frequency Containment (FCR) - avg iremereye € 14-15 / MW · h
• Hejuru ya AFRR - avg iremereye € 18 / MW · h
• Symmetric aFRR - avg iremereye € 24-27 / MW · h
• Igihe cyamasezerano Imyaka 5, EUR-igizwe
• Ugereranije ibiciro byisoko ryiburayi € 1.5–3 / MW · h (5-10x munsi)

Ubushishozi bw'ingenzi: Ibiciro bya serivisi zinyongera muri Ukraine byikubye inshuro 5-10 ugereranije n’amasoko yo mu Burayi akuze. Ibi birerekana ko hakenewe cyane ubushobozi bwo kuringaniza imiyoboro - kandi bivuze ko kubakoresha ibicuruzwa, amafaranga yinyongera ya serivisi yonyine ashobora kwishyura igice kinini cyamafaranga yishoramari, mbere yo gusuzuma ubukemurampaka nagaciro ko kurinda ibicuruzwa.

3. Kurinda ibicuruzwa no gukomeza ubucuruzi

Kurenga kwinjiza mu buryo butaziguye, hari agaciro k'ibyo kubika bibuza: guhagarika umusaruro, kwangiza ibikoresho, gutakaza amakuru, hamwe nigiciro cyabantu cyo gukora nta mashanyarazi. Ku ruganda, ibitaro, cyangwa ikigo cyitumanaho, ikiguzi cyumwanya umwe cyagutse kirashobora kurenza igiciro cyumwaka wa sisitemu yo kubika. Muri Ukraine muri iki gihe, iyi "resilience premium" ntabwo ari theoretical - ibaho buri munsi.

4. "Umuguzi Ukora" Inzira yinjira

Hamwe nuburyo bushya bwamategeko, ubucuruzi bushobora kugurisha ibisagutse bisubira kuri gride, bigashiraho urwego rwa gatatu rwinjiza. Sisitemu yateguwe neza izuba + ububiko C&I irashobora rero kwinjiza amafaranga ava mumigezi itatu icyarimwe: kuzigama ubukemurampaka, serivisi zinyongera, no kugurisha ingufu zisagutse.

Umuryango mpuzamahanga urimo gushora imari

Ingufu za Ukraine ziyubaka ntabwo zibaho mu bwigunge. Ubwubatsi mpuzamahanga bwubukungu bubushyigikiye ntabwo bwigeze bubaho:

• EBRD - umushoramari munini w’ibigo muri Ukraine, yohereje miliyari 2,4 € mu 2024 honyine, miliyari 6.2 kuva mu 2022. Yatangije ikigo cy’ingoboka cy’amayero miliyoni 700 cy’amayero (ESSF) cyane cyane ku bijyanye no kwegereza abaturage ubuyobozi, kubika ingufu, n’imishinga ikora neza.
• Banki y'Isi / IBRD - Miliyoni 177 z'amadorali yo gutera inkunga umushinga wo kubika MW 197 Ukrhydroenergo.
• MIGA - miliyari zisaga 4 z'amadolari y’ingwate za politiki, harimo intambara no guhungabanya umutekano.
• Ikigo cya EBRD - € 300M + muburyo bwo gutakaza igihombo cya mbere kugirango inguzanyo zubucuruzi zishoboke mugihe cyintambara.
• Ikigega cyo kwiyubaka kwa EU - intego ya € 500M yo gufunga bwa mbere muri 2026, gukusanya imari yigenga kubikorwa remezo byingufu.

Icyo ibi bivuze kubucuruzi bwa Ukraine: imari shingiro irahari. Imiyoboro yo gutera inkunga irahari. Uburyo bwubwishingizi bwimpanuka burahari. Urwego rwa politiki rushyigikira ishoramari. Igice cyabuze ni ukumenya gusa ibisubizo bikwiranye, uburyo bwo gutunganya umushinga, nuwo twafatanya.

Icyo Ukraine ikeneye ubu

Tumaze kwiga iri soko cyane, tubona icyuho cyinshi kitaruzuzwa - kandi aho twizera ko amahirwe akomeye ari mubucuruzi bwa Ukraine:

• Igice cya 1-10 MW C&I ni uburenganzira. Imishinga myinshi minini yibanda kuri gride-nini (10 MW +) cyangwa gutura (munsi ya 10 kWh). Hagati - inganda, ibitaro, ibigo byubucuruzi, ibikoresho byubuhinzi - niho hakenewe ibikorwa bifatika kandi aho ibisubizo bisanzwe bishobora kugira ingaruka byihuse.
• Imikorere y'ubukonje ni bidashoboka. Igihe cy'itumba cya Ukraine gisaba uburyo bwo kubika ingufu zikora neza kuri -20 ° C. Ibicuruzwa byose ku isoko ryisi ntibishobora kuzuza iki gisabwa.
• Grid-island guhinduranya hamwe nubushobozi bwumukara-gutangira ni ngombwa byingenzi, ntabwo byongeweho on-ons. Muri Ukraine, ubushobozi bwo gutandukana na gride yananiwe no gukora byigenga - hanyuma ufashe kongera gutangira gride iyo ikize - nikintu cya buri munsi, ntabwo ari ibintu byerekana.
• Umuvuduko wo kohereza ibintu nkibiciro. Sisitemu ifata amezi 12 yo gutanga ntabwo ifite agaciro kurenza imwe ishobora gukora mubyumweru 6. Ukraine ingufu za Ukraine zirahinduka mugihe cyicyumweru.
• Kwishyira hamwe hamwe na serivisi zinyongera - sisitemu nziza yo kubika C&I nizo zishobora kwitabira kugurisha cyamunara ya Ukrenergo, wongeyeho amafaranga yinjira atezimbere ROI kuburyo bugaragara.

Umushinga wo kubika ingufu za Wenergy C&I woherejwe muri Ukraine

Ukraine ntabwo yubaka gusa amashanyarazi. Irimo gushiraho icyitegererezo gishya cyukuntu igihugu kigera ku guhangana ningufu mubihe bigoye cyane umuntu yatekereza. Isi irareba, kandi isi irakwigiraho.

Muri Wenergy, tumaze imyaka dusobanukirwa tekinoroji yo kubika bateri, guhuza imiyoboro, hamwe nubukungu bwubwigenge bwingufu. Turabizi sisitemu ya LFP, imikorere yubukonje-ikirere, imikorere-yizinga, hamwe nubushobozi bwo gutangira. Ariko icy'ingenzi, twizera ko ubufatanye nyabwo bushingiye ku gusobanukirwa - ntabwo ari ibikorwa gusa.

Waba uri EPC, utegura umushinga, isosiyete ikora ingufu, ukoresha inganda, cyangwa ushakisha gusa umushinga wawe wo kubika ingufu - tutitaye ku bunini bwumushinga cyangwa urwego, twakwishimira kuganira. Birashobora kuba sisitemu ntoya ya C&I cyangwa umushinga-ngirakamaro. Urashobora kuba ufite umushinga, cyangwa ushobora kuba ushakisha gusa ibishoboka. Nta kibanza gikomeye cyo kugurisha. Gusa ikiganiro hagati yabantu bitaye kubintu bimwe:

Kubaka Ukraine itazongera gucura umwijima.