Kunyaka ophelileyo, xa oogxa kwishishini bexoxa ngendawo yokugcina amandla yaseYurophu, incoko yayisoloko ijikeleza eJamani, e-UK, okanye eItali. Namhlanje, kukho ilizwe elitsha elihlala lisiza kumnxeba wam, kwi-inbox yam, nakwiintlanganiso zam: Speyin.

Njengomntu osebenza kwiintengiso ze-BESS zamazwe ngamazwe kwaye uthetha nabaphuhlisi, ii-EPCs, kunye nabahlanganisi kulo lonke elaseYurophu yonke imihla, ndenza ishishini lam ukuqonda kungekuphela nje iinkcukacha zemveliso kunye namaxabiso, kodwa amandla emarike anzulu adlalayo - utshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo, amandla egridi, uyilo lwemarike yombane, kunye nengqondo yorhwebo eqhuba izigqibo zotyalo-mali.

Okukhona ndigrumba eSpain, kokukhona ndiqinisekileyo ukuba ayisiyiyo enye imarike esakhulayo. Imalunga nokuba lelinye lawona mabali aneziphumo zogcino lwamandla eYurophu.

Yintoni eyenza iSpain yahluke kukuba ukungxamiseka apha akusiyo ithiyori. Sele ivakale - ngeyona ndlela i-visceral inokwenzeka.

Umnxeba wokuvuka: nge-28 ka-Epreli, ngo-2025

Ngomhla wama-28 ku-Epreli 2025, ngo-12:33 PM, iSpain kunye nePortugal bafumana ukucima okugcweleyo kokuqala kwimbali yenkqubo yamandla yase-Iberia. Kwimizuzwana emihlanu, igridi ilahlekelwe phantse I-15 GW yesizukulwana - malunga ne-60% yemfuno yesizwe. Bangaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-50 abantu abachaphazelekileyo. Umhlaba wetrafikhi umise eMadrid naseLisbon. Izibhedlele zitshintshelwe kwiijenereyitha zokuxhasa. Iinethiwekhi eziphathwayo zathi cwaka. Amandla awazange abuyiselwe ngokupheleleyo ukuya kuthi ga kwiiyure ze-16.

Impembelelo yezoqoqosho yaqikelelwa I-2–5 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi. Kwafa abantu abasithoba.

Kangangeenyanga, intelekelelo yayingalawuleki. Ngaba yayiluhlaselo lwekhompyutha? Ukusilela kwezinto ezihlaziyiweyo? Impazamo yesixhobo sokukhupha amanzi? Xa i-ENTSO-E yapapasha ingxelo yayo yokugqibela yophando ngo-Matshi 2026, impendulo yayinzima kakhulu - kwaye ibaluleke kakhulu - kunayo nayiphi na ithiyori yesizathu esisodwa.

Ukucima umbane kwaba isiganeko se-multifactorial overvoltage. Inkqubo, eyayisebenza malunga ne-80% yelanga nomoya ngelo xesha, yayingenawo amandla okulawula amandla ombane aguqukayo. I-oscillations yayibonakala ukususela kusasa. Iiyunithi eziphambili ezinokuthunyelwa bezingasebenzi kwi-intanethi. Izityalo ezivuselelekayo bezisebenza kwimowudi yombane esisigxina-ithetha ukuba azinakuxhasa ngamandla amandla ombane xa inkqubo iyifuna kakhulu. Kwaye ngokukhawuleza, Umthamo wokugcina amandla ebhetri ubuncinci kakhulu ukubonelela ngokukhawuleza, iinkonzo zegridi zasekhaya ebezinokuthi zizinzise inkqubo.

Njengoko olunye uhlalutyo luyibeka ngokucacileyo: "Ayisiyonto enokuhlaziywa - imalunga nolawulo lwamandla ombane."

Isifundo sasicacile. Inkqubo yamandla ene-70% ehlaziyiweyo kwaye phantse akukho kugcinwa akusiyo inguqu yamandla egqityiweyo. Yinkqubo esebenza ngaphandle komnatha wokhuseleko.

Ukusuka kwifowuni yokuvuka ukuya kwintengiso yentengiso

Ukucima okumnyama akuzange kudale imarike yokugcina yaseSpain. Kodwa yakhawulezisa into eyayisele ingenakuphepheka.

Ukutshintsha kwamandla eSpain kuye kwaphawuleka nangawuphi na umlinganiselo. Ilizwe ngoku liphelile I-46 GW yomthamo wePV ofakiweyo welanga - elona likhulu eYurophu - elinokuhlaziywa kubalwa malunga ne-70% yomthamo ofakiweyo. Kwi-Q1 2026 yodwa, iSpain yongeza i-2.3 GW ye-utility-scale solar, i-5.5% yonyuka kwikota enye.

Kodwa le mpumelelo idale eyayo ingxaki-leyo yonke imarike enokuhlaziywa okuphezulu ekugqibeleni ijongana nayo.

The Negative Price Epidemic

Ngo-2024, iSpain irekhode iiyure ezili-168 zamaxabiso ombane othengileyo. Ngo-2025, elo nani liye landa iiyure ezingama-555 - ngaphezu kokuphindwe kathathu. Nge-Q1 2026, iSpain yayisele ingenile iiyure ezingama-397 yexabiso eliphantsi kwe-zero, xa kuthelekiswa neeyure ze-48 nje ngexesha elifanayo le-2025. Kwi-Q2 2025 yodwa, iSpain irekhode i-411 iiyure zexabiso elibi-elona liphezulu kuyo nayiphi na imarike ye-EU-10.

Okwangoku, ukusasazeka kwexabiso le-intraday kuye kwanda kakhulu. Ukusasazwa kwemihla ngemihla phakathi kweeyure eziphantsi kunye nexabiso eliphezulu ngoku zidlula rhoqo €150/MWh. Nge-3 kaJulayi, i-2025, ixabiso lombane lokuthengisa lasasazeka eSpain €177.95/MWh.

Lo ngutyikityo lwencwadi yegridi egcwele amandla elanga: amaxabiso emini ehle ukuya kuthi ga kwiqanda okanye ngaphantsi, ngelixa amaxabiso aphezulu ngokuhlwa enyuka njengoko umbane welanga unyamalala kwaye ufuna ukunyuka. Amaxabiso okubanjwa kwelanga eSpain awela kwi-12% ngonyaka ukuya kumyinge we €39.93/MWh ngo-2025, kunye ne-avareji yenyanga idipha ngaphantsi kwe-€20/MWh ngexesha leenyanga zelanga.

Umyalezo ovela kwimarike awuthandabuzeki: ayisekho malunga nokuba mangakanani amandla owavelisayo - imalunga nokuba uwavelisa nini.

I-Energy Market Shift yaseSpain: Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aMabi kunye nokuKhula kweMfuno ye-BESS

Ukudubula koMbhobho

Impendulo yeSpain kule mingeni iye yakhawuleza kwaye inkulu.

Umbhobho weprojekthi ye-BESS uye wanda ngendlela emangalisayo 464% unyaka nonyaka. I-Red Eléctrica sele ivunyiwe I-22 GW yeemvume zokudibanisa igridi yokugcina, kunye ne-16 GW eyongezelelweyo elindele imvume. Ngaphezulu kwe-25 GW yeeprojekthi zebhetri ngoku zikumgca woqhagamshelo lwegridi.

NgokweSicwangciso esiHlangeneyo seSizwe saMandla kunye neSimo sezulu saseSpain (PNIEC), ilizwe lijolise kuyo I-22.5 GW yokugcina amandla ngo-2030 - into ekujoliswe kuyo ngoku ayijongi nje ngamabhongo kodwa iyimfuneko.

Abahlalutyi boshishino baprojekthi malunga I-1 GWh yofakelo olutsha lokugcina ngo-2026 (ukunyuka kwama-233% unyaka nonyaka), ukunyuka ukuya 2 GWh ngo-2027 kunye nokufikelela 6.8 GWh ngo-2030.

Kwaye iiprojekthi sele zihamba:

• Indalo yaphuka umhlaba kwiiprojekthi zayo zokuqala ezine BESS (160 MW / 342 MWh) e Almería kunye Canary Islands, kunye 10-iiprojekthi portfolio iyonke € 80 million kutyalo-mali.
• Iberdrola ugunyazise iibhetri zokuqala ezinkulu zaseSpain ngoJanuwari 2026 - iRomeral kunye ne-Olmedilla eCuenca, nganye i-30 MW / 60 MWh - njengenxalenye yephakheji ye-173 MW exhaswa yi-€ 37.5 yezigidi kwiimali ze-PERTE.
• Grenergy yakha eyona BESS inkulu ezimele yodwa eSpain ukuza kuthi ga ngoku: iprojekthi ye-Oviedo ye-150 MW / 600 MWh, kunye nekhontrakthi ye-10 yeminyaka yokurhafisa kunye ne-investment-grade utility.
• FRV iphuhlisa i-334 MW / 1,336 MWh kwiindawo ezintandathu zofakelo eCatalonia.
• Acciona, Statkraft, Galp, OPD Energy, Ignis, Zelestra, Engie, Repsol, kunye ne-Endesa yonke imibhobho eqhubela phambili ebalulekileyo.

UZelestra, omnye wabaphuhlisi abaphambili baseSpain, wayichaza ngokucacileyo: "Asiyiqondi nayiphi na iprojekthi yelanga yePV ngaphandle kwendawo yokugcina. Kuyafuneka."

Ngapha koko, zonke izivumelwano ezingama-400 ezilandelelweyo ze-BESS eSpain ngo-2025 zadityaniswa nelanga-uphawu olucacileyo lokuba imakethi ifake ngaphakathi kwi-logic ye-solar-plus-storage njengento entsha engagqibekanga.

Undoqo wePolisi

Umgaqo-nkqubo uhambela ukubamba ubunyani bemarike - kwaye kwezinye iindawo, phambi kwayo.

NgoMeyi ka-2026, iKhomishini yaseYurophu yamkele ngokusemthethweni iSpain indlela yokuthengisa amandla, ezakuhlanganisa ukuya kuthi ga I-9 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngaphezulu kwe-2026-2036 ukuqinisekisa ukwanela kwezibonelelo. Lo ngumdlalo wokutshintsha ukugcinwa, ukubonelela ngengeniso yekhontrakthi yexesha elide eguqula i-BESS ukusuka kubheji lomrhwebi ukuya kwi-asethi yeziseko zebhanki.

Ngaphaya kwemarike yamandla, ugcino lwaseSpain luxhaswa yimijelo yenkxaso-mali emininzi:

• Imali ye-PERTE (I-EU yoBuyiselo kunye neFacility Resilience) inika inkxaso-mali kwi-BESS capex
• FEDER-ixhaswa iifandesi ezintsha zokugcina amandla
• Ii-EU Isicwangciso sokuGcinwa kwamandla kunye ne-200 GW ye-EU ebanzi ekujoliswe kuyo yokugcina i-2030
• Utshintsho ukuya Iiyunithi zexesha lemarike yemizuzu eyi-15 (ukusebenza ngo-Okthobha ka-2025 kwiimarike ezininzi zaseYurophu), eye yandisa ukuguquguquka kwexabiso elibonakalayo kunye nokwandisa amathuba okugweba kubasebenzisi bokugcina.

Utshintsho lwesakhiwo ukuya kwi-15-minute granularity ibaluleke kakhulu eSpain. Ukuvela kweepateni zexabiso le-"sawtooth" yangaphakathi-iyure - eqhutywa yi-ramping ehlaziyiweyo kunye nemiqobo yegridi - idale i-arbitrage layers ezongezelelweyo ezingazange zibekho phantsi kolawulo oludala lokuhlaliswa kweyure.

Yintoni ngokwenene abathengi abayifunayo

Ngeencoko zam zemihla ngemihla kunye nabathengi abasebenzayo kwimarike yaseSpain, ndiye ndaqaphela indaleko ecacileyo kwinto abayidingayo-kwaye ihamba kakuhle ngaphaya kwehardware.

Kunyaka okanye emibini edlulileyo, incoko yayiyeyona nto iphambili malunga nekhemistri yeseli, amaxabiso enkqubo, kunye namaxesha okuhambisa. Namhlanje, imibuzo yahluke kakhulu:

• "Ngaba i-EMS yakho inokufikelela kwiindlela ezininzi zengeniso-i-arbitrage yosuku olungaphambili, iinkonzo ezincedisayo, izibophelelo zemarike yamandla - ngaxeshanye?"
• "Ngaba inkqubo yakho iyahambelana neekhowudi zegridi zamva nje zaseSpain kunye nemithetho yaseYurophu, kubandakanya neemfuno zenkxaso yombane?"
• "Ngaba ungaxhasa igridi yokwenza amandla? Ukucima umbane kusibonise ukuba ulawulo lwamandla ombane alusakhethi."
• "Luluphi uhlobo lokugunyazisa kunye nenkxaso ye-O&M yexesha elide onokuthi uyibonelele ekuhlaleni?"
• "Uyiphatha njani indawo yokubambisana kunye nezinto ezikhoyo zelanga? Amaxabiso ethu okubamba ayawa ngaphandle kokugcinwa."

Le asiyomibuzo nje eqhelekileyo. Babonisa imarike eye yadlula "ingaba ugcino luza kusebenza apha?" isigaba kwaye ungene "senza njani ugcino lusebenze kakuhle apha?" isigaba.

Olu lutshintsho kanye ebendilulindele - kwaye lubonisa into endiyibonileyo kwezinye iimarike ezikhulayo zaseYurophu. Ukhuphiswano kwishishini lokugcina amandla alusekho malunga nokuba ibhetri kabani ixabisa ngaphantsi kwe-kilowatt-yure. Kumalunga nokuba ngubani onokuzisa isisombululo esidibeneyo esenza ixabiso lexesha elide kuwo wonke umjikelo wobomi beprojekthi.

Kubaphuhlisi abajongene nokuwohloka kwamaxabiso okubanjwa kwelanga, iqabane elifanelekileyo lokugcina ayingomthengisi wezixhobo nje kuphela. Bafuna umntu oqondayo i-dynamics ethile yemarike yombane yaseSpain - iipatheni zexabiso elibi, iipatheni zengeniso yenkonzo encedisayo, isakhelo semarike yamandla, iibhotile ezivumelekileyo - kwaye unokuyila inkqubo eyenza imali kubo bonke.

Ukunxibelelana nabaThengi kunye nabaSebenzi kwi-E Europe ekrelekrele ngo-2026

Ewe, yonke imarike inesantya sayo sophuhliso.

ISpain iseyimarike ekhulayo, apho imigaqo-nkqubo, iimodeli zoshishino, kunye neendlela zentengiso yombane ziqhubeka zivela. Kodwa yiloo nto kanye eyenza ukuba kube mnandi kakhulu. Ukukhula kwayo ngokukhawuleza kudala amathuba amatsha kubaphuhlisi, iinkampani ze-EPC, abatyali-mali, kunye nababoneleli bezisombululo.

Iqela le-Wenergy kwi-E Europe ehlakaniphile ngo-2026

Kwi-E Yurophu ehlakaniphile ngo-2026, iingxoxo malunga nokukhula kweSpain amandla okugcina amandla aqhubeka nokuvela.

Kum, yonke imarike endiphanda ngayo kwaye wonke umthengi endidibanisa naye ngamava abalulekileyo okufunda. Ilizwe ngalinye linesakhiwo salo samandla esikhethekileyo, isakhelo solawulo, kunye nolindelo lwabathengi. Okukhona ndiwuqonda lo mahluko, kokukhona ndinokunceda abathengi bafumane izisombululo ezihambelana neemfuno zabo.

Ukujonga phambili

ISpeyin inengxaki yayo. Imvume ihlala icotha - kwi-H1 2025, i-64% yeeprojekthi ze-BESS zibambekile ekuhlaziyweni kwendalo okanye imvume yokuqala, kwaye akukho projekthi enye yokugcina i-standalone ifumene imvume epheleleyo yokwakha. Imigca yoqhagamshelo lwegridi mide. Isakhelo solawulo, ngelixa siphuculwa, sisaqhubeka. Iinkcukacha zemarike yomthamo zisagqityezelwa.

Kodwa ezi ziingxwabangxwaba zentengiso kwinguqu ekhawulezayo, hayi imiqondiso yokuma. Abaqhubi abasisiseko - ukugcwala kwelanga, amaxabiso amabi, izinyanzeliso zozinzo lwegridi, i-9 yebhiliyoni yemalike yemalike, kunye ne-22.5 GW ekujoliswe kuyo kazwelonke-zakhiwe kwaye azinakuguqulwa.

Yonke imarike endiyifundayo kwaye wonke umthengi endizibandakanya naye undifundisa into entsha. ISpain indifundisile oko ugcino lwamandla aluzange lube malunga neebhetri. Kumalunga nokuqonda igridi, ukufunda imiqondiso yentengiso, ukuzulazula kumhlaba wolawulo, kunye nokwakha izisombululo ezinikezela ngexabiso kungekuphela nje ngosuku lokuqala, kodwa kumjikelezo wobomi be-asethi we-15 ukuya kwengama-20.

Ukucima kuka-Epreli 2025 kwaba yintlekele kunye nesilumkiso. Kodwa impendulo - i-464% yombhobho wotyando, imakethi yelizwe, izaziso zeprojekthi ezivela kuyo yonke into ebalulekileyo yaseSpain - ibonisa ukuba imakethi iwuvile umyalezo ngokuvakalayo nangokucacileyo.

Ibali laseSpain lokugcina amandla liqala nje. Ndijonge phambili ekuqhubekeni ndifunda kubalingane beshishini kunye nokusebenza kunye namaqabane kulo lonke elaseYurophu ukuxhasa isigaba esilandelayo sophuhliso lokugcinwa kwamandla.

Malunga nombhali: Umbhali usebenza kwiintengiso ze-BESS zamazwe ngamazwe e-Wenergy, ezixhasa ii-EPCs, abaphuhlisi, kunye nabahlanganisi kuzo zonke iimarike zaseYurophu kunye nezisombululo zokugcina amandla kunye nezorhwebo kunye nezoshishino.

Imithombo yedatha engundoqo: I-SolarPower yaseYurophu iMakethi yeBhetri yaseYurophu 2026–2030; Ingxelo yokugqibela ye-ENTSO-E yophando malunga nokucima umbane wase-Iberia (ngoMatshi 2026); S&P Global; I-Red Electrica de España; UMphathiswa waseSpain weNguquko yeNdalo (i-MITECO); ePexapark; Bloomberg; Indawo ye-Epex.